2027: Battle for Lagos Assembly seats hots up

There are no automatic tickets for members of the Lagos State House of Assembly as the All Progressives Congress (APC) insists on primaries, leaving incumbents battling strong challengers across constituencies. Correspondent SAM ANOKAM examines the prospects of the 40 lawmakers in the 10th Assembly and their chances at the shadow polls

Ahead of the All Progressives Congress (APC) primaries slated for May, the contest for seats in the Lagos State House of Assembly has intensified.

Obasa: Agege 1

For six terms, Speaker of the Lagos House of Assembly Mudashiru Obasa has been the longest-serving lawmaker in the Southwest since the return to civil rule in 1999. He recently marked his 10th year as Speaker.

However, if current political signals are anything to go by, Obasa may be forced to either return to the House to continue representing Agege 1 or exit the Assembly altogether.

His ambition for governorship appears to have stalled, with Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat widely regarded as a frontrunner for the APC ticket.

His chances of securing the Lagos West senatorial ticket also look slim, as the incumbent, Senator Idiat Oluranti Adebule, is serving her first term and may seek re-election. Being the only female senator from Lagos could also work in her favour on grounds of inclusivity.

The option of contesting for the Agege Federal Constituency seat may equally be difficult, as the current occupant is a first-term lawmaker whom the party could retain.

Back home in Agege, Obasa’s political signals remain unclear, creating space for multiple aspirants to emerge. As a member of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), he is being suggested as a backer of a particular governorship aspirant.

Meanwhile, Tayo Ayinde, Chief of Staff to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, is also reportedly eyeing Adebule’s senatorial seat, further complicating the political equation.

If these options fail, a return to the House of Assembly for a seventh term appears to be the most viable path. There are also speculations that he could return to serve as a stabilising figure in the 11th Assembly and mentor younger lawmakers.

Meranda: Apapa 1

Mojisola Lasbat Meranda, who briefly served as Speaker for 49 days, made a notable impact that could boost her chances of returning for a fourth term.

Though she faces a formidable challenger in Dr Mike Oladunjoye Egbayelo, the current Deputy Speaker remains a strong contender for the ticket.

Ogundipe: Oshodi/Isolo 1

Chairman of the House Committee on Strategy, Information and Security, Stephen Ogundipe, is believed to have the backing of influential quarters. However, there are claims that he has lost touch with constituents, many of whom oppose his return.

Two aspirants—Mayowa Alakija and Governor Sanwo-Olu’s SSA on Sports, Banji Atewogboye (Skibanj)—have entered the race, making the contest highly competitive.

Of the two, Alakija appears to enjoy strong backing from both youth groups and party leaders in the constituency. This support was evident at a recent consultative meeting he convened at the new APC secretariat in Oshodi, attended by key stakeholders from the Mandate and Justice blocs, ward leaders, council officials, artisans and representatives of non-indigene communities.

Olumoh: Ajeromi Ifelodun 1

Two-term lawmaker Lukmon Sa’ad Olumoh faces an uncertain path to a third term.

He is up against strong opposition within his constituency, including the immediate past local government chairman and prominent grassroots politician, Fatai Ajidagba (Ajifat), who enjoys the backing of veteran political figures. Expanding his political outreach may be critical to his chances.

Elliot: Surulere 1

Desmond Olusola Elliot appears to be facing an uphill task in his bid for a fourth term. He is reportedly at odds with sections of his constituency.

His ambition to become Speaker may depend on securing re-election, but that path looks uncertain. In 2023, his return was aided by a powerful political figure, despite resistance from constituents.

That support may no longer be guaranteed, as he is said to have fallen out with his political benefactor.

Among those challenging him for the APC ticket are President Bola Tinubu’s Personal Assistant on Constituency Affairs, Khadijat Kareem Omotayo; Governor Sanwo-Olu’s Special Assistant on Housing, Barakat Odunuga Bakare; and Oladipo Rilwan Jaji—all considered strong contenders.

Bonu: Badagry 1

Solomon Sannu Bonu faces a tough contest from a former local government chairman known for strong grassroots appeal.

The former chairman is said to have built significant goodwill during his tenure, making this a keenly contested race. A victory for Bonu would secure him a second term.

Ajomale: Oshodi/Isolo 2

Oladipo Olayinka Ajomale is widely regarded as one of the Assembly’s more cerebral lawmakers and currently faces no serious opposition.

With the added advantage of his father’s standing as a GAC member and former APC state chairman, his path to re-election appears relatively smooth. Many aspirants in the constituency are instead focusing on the House of Representatives seat.

Olumegbon: Lagos Island 1

First-term lawmaker Lara Oyekan Olumegbon is reportedly facing strong opposition in what is shaping up as a contest with royal undertones.

With both leading contenders linked to traditional institutions, the outcome remains uncertain.

Jimoh: Alimosho 1

Orelope Olatunji Jimoh appears to be benefiting from his sister’s political influence, a prominent figure at both state and national levels.

However, constituent feedback suggests his performance has not been particularly impressive, leaving his re-election prospects uncertain.

 Joseph: Alimosho 2

Second-term lawmaker Kehinde Olajide Joseph enjoys goodwill among constituents but faces strong opposition for the APC ticket.

He may need to intensify consultations and broaden his support base ahead of the primary.

Oshafile: Amuwo Odofin 1

ADC lawmaker Foluke Oshafile remains a strong figure within her constituency and is likely to secure her party’s ticket.

However, her chances in the general election may depend on the strength of the APC candidate she faces.

Sulaiman: Amuwo Odofin 2

Rauf Age Sulaiman, a ranking lawmaker, has a history of successfully navigating difficult contests.

Although his current chances appear uncertain, given strong opposition, experience suggests that he is still in the race.

Setonji: Badagry 2

Deputy Chief Whip David Samuel Setonji faces opposition from some party leaders who are reluctant to support his fourth-term bid.

Despite this, his experience and political network could still see him through.

Tobun: Epe 1

Abiodun Tobun faces stiff opposition, particularly from Lanre Ogundele, who has been actively campaigning across the constituency.

Though Tobun has a reputation for political resilience, his chances are evenly balanced.

Ogunkelu: Epe 2

Sylvester Ogunkelu, popularly known as Sketel, faces competition from Prince Olumuyiwa Ogunlari and Olakunle Dabiri.

However, his popularity, especially among youths, puts him in a strong position for a third term.

Abiodun: Ikorodu 2

Aro Moshood Abiodun, though a first-term lawmaker, is seen as a quick learner and active contributor in the House.

He appears well-positioned to secure a second term.

Adams: Eti-Osa 1

Majority Leader Noheem Adams remains a dominant force in his constituency and faces no serious opposition.

Support from local government chairmen and residents, driven by infrastructural interventions, has strengthened his chances of a third term.

Yishawu: Eti-Osa 2

Olugbenga Gbolahan Yishawu is widely regarded as one of the Assembly’s more effective lawmakers.

His role in securing a 50-year lease renewal for property owners in Ikoyi-Obalende has boosted his standing, and he faces no major opposition.

Adebola: Ibeju-Lekki 1

Fatai Mojeed Adebola’s return for a fifth term depends largely on the APC primaries.

While elders support him, youth groups are pushing for change, creating an interesting contest.

Okanlawon: Kosofe 1

Sanni Ganiyu Okanlawon faces multiple strong challengers and internal party issues.

However, his advocacy on behalf of residents affected by the Oworonshoki demolition may work in his favour.

Obafemi: Kosofe 2

Saheed Wasiu Obafemi faces internal party challenges, including competition from APC youth leader Muritala Seriki.

Despite this, he remains confident of securing the ticket.

Afinni: Lagos Island 2

Afinni Olanrewaju Suleiman appears set for a third term, with strong backing from party leaders and no major challengers.

Owolabi: Lagos Mainland 1

Ibrahim Ajani Owolabi is expected to face little resistance, given his father’s influence within the party’s constituency structure.

Adekola: Lagos Mainland 2

Shabi Rasheed Adebola Adekola is well-regarded and faces no significant opposition, positioning him strongly for a second term.

Akinsanya: Mushin 1

Nureni Ayinde Akinsanya remains a dominant political figure in Mushin, with strong grassroots influence likely to see him through despite opposition.

Muyideen: Mushin 2

Kazeem Olayinka Muyideen has no major challenger and appears poised for a second term.

Ege: Ojo 1

Olusegun Adebisi Ege’s path to re-election appears clearer now that there is no major challenger.

Tijani: Ojo 2

Tijani Surajudeen Olatunji faces competition but remains a strong contender, with indications pointing to a possible third-term victory.

Abdulkareem: Agege 2

Jubril Abdulkareem Ayodele faces stiff opposition, particularly from an aspirant known as Nino.

His chances will largely depend on his performance in the primary.

Sangodara: Surulere 2

Mosunmola Sangodara faces strong challengers, including Basirat Ayinde Marshall and former council chairman Ahmed Apatira.

Her chances hinge on her success in the primary.

Ajayi: Ibeju-Lekki 2

Ajayi Oladele Oluwadamilare faces internal opposition but no major challenger, giving him a fair chance of returning.

Adedeji: Ifako-Ijaiye 1

Temitope Adewale Adedeji (Jah) remains popular and is backed by numerous community development associations, boosting his chances of a third term.

Olotu: Ifako-Ijaiye 2

Despite reports disputing his adoption as a consensus candidate, Olotu faces no major challenger and could secure a second term.

Kasunmu: Ikeja 2

Deputy Majority Leader Adedamola Kasunmu faces strong opposition but may still benefit from high-level political backing.

Ogunleye: Ikorodu 1

Gbolahan Ogunleye faces competition from Olayinka Ogbe but may benefit from family political influence.

Musibau: Apapa 2

Lawal Aina Musibau faces internal challenges and is working to secure the party ticket.

Lawal: Ikeja 1

First-term lawmaker Adeseyi Lawal faces strong opposition backed by influential figures, making his re-election bid uncertain.

Orekoya: Somolu 1

Abiodun Abimbola Orekoya faces multiple challengers, setting the stage for a tough contest.

Apata: Somolu 2

At the time of filing this report, Samuel Olu Apata appears to be the sole APC aspirant in his constituency, giving him a clear path for now.