2027: How far can Fubara go?
Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara has adopted silence as a political strategy. Apart from publicly supporting the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, he has said little about his own
Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara has adopted silence as a political strategy. Apart from publicly supporting the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, he has said little about his own prospects of returning to the Brick House for a second term in 2027.
Beneath that calm exterior, however, lies a quiet but intense re-election battle. While his silence may suggest a lack of interest in another term, behind the scenes, his actions point to a leader still weighing his chances.
Recently, a group of elders and supporters purchased nomination and expression-of-interest forms on his behalf. The stakeholders, led by Awaji-Inombek Abiante, a member of the House of Representatives representing Andoni-Opobo-Nkoro Federal Constituency, paid N50 million for the forms.
Explaining the move, Abiante said: “This is about democracy, and democracy is about the people. If the people decide to bear the burden of bringing you back to serve them, it is not about how deep your pocket is, but how the people feel.
“That is why, as representatives of the people of Rivers State, we insist that the present governor, who has opened up areas nobody imagined possible, should return.”
Despite the gesture, Fubara has remained silent and has not publicly acknowledged it. The governor is also reportedly holding a series of meetings to assess his chances and fine-tune strategies for a possible re-election bid.
He is said to be working closely with the Chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum and Governor of Imo State, Hope Uzodimma, who has reportedly assured him of support within the forum.
Fubara is also believed to have positioned loyalists to contest in the All Progressives Congress (APC) House of Assembly primaries. A list of preferred candidates for various constituencies recently surfaced online. At the same time, key allies, including Ambassador Chijoke Ihunwo and Victor Oko-Jumbo, have publicly declared their intentions and displayed their nomination forms.
Still, questions remain about how far the governor can go. His path is fraught with political obstacles.
Since joining the APC, Fubara has struggled to assert control within the party in Rivers State. During the party’s recent nationwide congresses, the state was excluded, and the national leadership retained existing leadership structures—predating his defection. Similarly, his candidates failed to emerge at the South-South zonal congress.
At the state level, his influence also appears limited. He had no candidates in the last local government elections, and the majority of party structures remain outside his control. The 23 local government chairmen—20 from the APC and three from the PDP—are largely not aligned with him. He also lacks control over the State House of Assembly.
This raises a critical question: how can he navigate a direct primary system without firm control of party structures?
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing Fubara is his ongoing feud with his former political ally and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike. Their fragile truce has effectively collapsed, with Wike openly declaring that he will no longer support the governor.
Widely regarded as a dominant force in Rivers politics, Wike has consolidated his influence through what he calls the “Rainbow Coalition,” a political alliance spanning both the APC and the PDP.
Through this coalition, Wike is said to control key political structures, including local government leadership, members of the State House of Assembly, and a significant number of members of the National Assembly. He is also believed to have a strong influence over federal appointments from the state, effectively extending his reach across party lines.
The coalition has reportedly settled on a preferred governorship aspirant, former Commissioner for Works, Alabo Dakorinama George-Kelly, who is expected to challenge Fubara in the primaries.
With such a formidable structure aligned against him, many observers believe Fubara faces an uphill battle. Some describe his chances as extremely slim, particularly if the full weight of party machinery is deployed against him. Other aspirants, including businessman Tonye Cole, are also in the race.
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Yet, there are suggestions that Fubara may still have alternative strategies. During the last local government elections, his loyalists contested under the relatively obscure Action Peoples Party (APP) after leaving the PDP and initially secured victories, but the Supreme Court nullified the results.
This has fueled speculation that the governor could consider another platform if conditions within the APC prove unfavourable. However, such a move would depend on electoral laws governing party primaries and defections.
Recent developments have added to the speculation. Fubara’s meeting with Abia State Governor Alex Otti at the Government House in Port Harcourt, held behind closed doors, has sparked talk of a possible “Plan B.”
Otti, a leading figure in the Labour Party (LP), is seen as leading a party currently free of major legal disputes, making it an attractive option for politicians exploring alternatives.
Ultimately, the coming months will be decisive.
What is clear is that Fubara, backed by significant financial resources, has the capacity to mount a strong campaign if he chooses to run. He could also attempt to revive and reorganise the Simplified Movement, the political structure that supported him during earlier crises.
Whether that will be enough to overcome the entrenched opposition within his current party remains the central question.
