2027 Presidency: Early scenarios (3)

The governor has been reassuring his supporters at state level he would provide them an alternative platform for contesting next year’s elections, but all his running around hasn’t delivered anything definite. His hardline comment declaring PDP members supporting Wike enemies of democracy is the best evidence yet that reconciliation talks between the party’s factions remain a stretch at this point.

So, while his presidential dreams may all have gone out of the window, political survival necessitates a desperate search for new allies who can offer anything close to a challenge to the vice grip of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the absence of the fractious PDP.

It had long been rumoured that Makinde was ultimately headed for the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Now he’s making common cause with Obi who has formally joined and Kwankwaso who reportedly is thinking of doing the unthinkable: abandoning his New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) pet project and picking a membership card, perhaps, as early as today!

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Were this to play out, it would actualise the long-held wish of many an opposition supporter that all their leaders pooled their strengths under one platform. Interestingly, three of the 2023 presidential contestants would be working together.

At the last election, Tinubu was elected president, having satisfied all legal requirements under the Electoral Act, with 8,794,726 votes - only 36.61% of total votes cast. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who was the PDP flag bearer came second with 6,984,520 votes – representing 29.07%. LP’s Obi had 6,101,533 votes (25.40%), while Kwankwaso managed 1,496,687 votes, which was 6.23% of the ballots.

As the trauma of electoral defeat sank in, supporters of the losers took to their calculators, summing up what might have been. Many bewailed the fact the total vote haul of Tinubu’s three rivals came to 14, 582, 740 as opposed to his winning figure of 8,794, 726. In the end it was all academic seeing as the first past the post met all the requirements for claiming the presidency.

Ever since, many of have dreamt of the day when all the perennial presidential aspirants would rally under one banner to take on the strengthened incumbent. Atiku cried himself hoarse in making this point while selling the idea of a coalition of all political tendencies outside the APC platform.

If the day actually comes when Kwankwaso would abandon his home to seek shelter in ADC, then the opposition would have taken a giant step towards making the 2027 polls a bit competitive. For him, rationalising joining ADC and spurning APC would be interesting. A few months ago he stated that he wasn’t averse to joining a different political party. However, such a move would be incumbent in he being offered the presidential or vice presidential ticket. Since Tinubu wasn’t willing to dump his loyal deputy, Kashim Shettima, defecting to the ruling party lost its appeal.

But the divorce with his erstwhile protégé, Kano State Governor, Abba Yusuf, was akin to him shedding a babanriga and making do with a danshiki. His ego may not admit it but in this break up he lost a major part of his strength. With the defection of the governor Kwankwassiya 2023 vintage looks a different kettle of fish from the 2026 leftovers – never mind the crowd of red caps bopping up and down in Kano’s blazing sun.

So, what has changed? Kwankwaso said he would only join others if he’s offered any of the top two tickets. It’s almost certain that the ADC that’s still batting with elementary formative issues like a proper membership roster hasn’t gotten to the stage of making anyone grand promises.

When Obi’s supporters started their entitlement-based ‘Obi or nothing’ chorus, Atiku firmly intervened to state that nobody would be excluded from contesting for the presidential ticket. All aspirants, himself included, would be allowed to test their strength at the primaries. This would be the former Vice President’s last chance at fighting for the nation’s top office. He’s not about to pass up the opportunity to actualise a life-long dream.

The amended 2026 Electoral Act provides for parties to pick their candidates either through direct primaries where members cast their votes. Alternatively, the flag bearer can emerge by consensus. Aside Atiku, other top ADC leaders have hinted that the second option is a nonstarter in a sea of the ambitious. Kwankwaso wants to run but could settle for number two. Obi wants the ticket, so also does former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi.

Atiku who is a veteran of many primaries, having started his quest for ultimate power over thirty years ago, has been shoring up his support base within the new party across the country. However, the recent membership drive exposed the fact that strength of the ADC lies in its Northern ranks. As at mid-March, the North led the recruitment drive with over 70% of registrants. Of the total of 652,143 registered, 555,299 were up North, leaving a measly 96,844 down South. The Northeast geopolitical zone led all regions with 256,966 – with Atiku’s home state of Adamawa garnering 104,998 – the highest figure for any state in the country.

The Southeast brought up the rear with only 23,296 registrations. Obi’s home state of Anambra contributed a mere 6,260 to that figure. The stats tell a stark tale: Atiku holds the aces in the contest of numbers. His potential Southern rivals are in a very weak position. Little wonder that Obi declared a few days ago that he wasn’t sure of securing the ADC ticket.

What’s looking like a foregone conclusion in favour of the former VP has given rise to speculation that there could be an upset if a deal could be brokered for Kwankwaso to run as the under card to Obi. Such a partnership, it is argued, could energise the party and neutralise Atiku. Anyone is free to dream, but it’s hard to see how the old warhorse would allow himself to be upstaged by a new entrant into the house he built.

But there’s still another scenario. Obi and company would not allow themselves to be trapped by the deadly timelines in the new Electoral Act and could pull off another defection from ADC before the party’s digital register is lodged in the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) archives.

That’s where, Senator Seriake Dickson, the fourth participant at the Kano Kwankwasiyya show of force, comes in. He’s the face fronting the recently-registered Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). Could this be the unheralded ‘third force’ that offers Obi that uncontested platform that he desires?

If it is, then we are back in 2023 where a fractured opposition failed against a united ruling party. Back then none of the contenders ran against an incumbent. In 2027 they would be facing one who has fortified himself and his party by skilfully shifting the levers of power over four years.