2027 Presidency: Early scenarios (4)
As of this moment, the much ballyhooed opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) looks like a hot air balloon that has suffered a debilitating puncture. The unscripted departure of former Labour
As of this moment, the much ballyhooed opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) looks like a hot air balloon that has suffered a debilitating puncture. The unscripted departure of former Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and one-time Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, has set off an ongoing exchange of barbs by erstwhile allies.
Obi blamed a ‘toxic’ political environment and internal instability for fleeing to pastures anew. In reply, party spokesman, Bolaji Abdullahi, denounced his defection as premeditated. He said the aspirant just wanted the party’s ticket handed to him and wasn’t interested in ADC’s policies. While admitting the departure was a setback, he insisted it wasn’t a fatal blow.
“In a way, it’s a bit of relief. Now we can focus on really doing what we need to do without being under the pressure cooker that they were trying to put us in,” he said.
If this feels like a bitter divorce, there’s a back story. It is received wisdom that the only way the opposition is ever going to defeat an incumbent is for them to pool resources. For over a year, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, had been hammering on this theme and it appeared like his message had gotten through.
At some point you actually had Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, former Rivers State Governor and Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, all under one roof. It was beginning to look like another group was set to repeat the All Progressives Congress’ (APC) trick from 2015. Alas, it was too good to be true.
The opposition love to look back nostalgically at the 2023 polls when collectively they garnered more votes than eventual winner, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. For nearly three years they’ve tormented themselves with thoughts of what could have been.
But much as they hoped for a united front, it was only a matter of time before reality set in. The greatest obstacle to opposition unity has always been ego and ambition, and it’s nothing new. But for the military, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) could have ruled forever in the Second Republic because Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe of the Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) were never able to make the personal sacrifices that could have made electoral cooperation between their parties possible.
Despite acknowledging that their solo 2023 presidential bids took them nowhere, none of the aspirants in ADC was willing to step down for the larger good of the platform.
There was an absence of consensus as to how the coalition’s presidential candidate would emerge. Truth be told, the main attraction for most of these individuals was picking the ticket of a formidable party.
Obi wanted it zoned to the South, naturally expecting to be the beneficiary. The other Southern aspirant, Amaechi, has nowhere near the support the former Anambra State governor draws from his fanatical Obidient Movement.
Atiku who had declared that this was his final run, took it for granted that his younger rivals would yield to him on account of age and eminence – zoning be damned. They did nothing of the sort. The upshot is a damaging split in what was emerging as a promising political grouping.
Many are quick to dredge up 2023 election statistics as though they are cast in stone, or are what would be recycled to determine the next general election outcome. Nothing can be more erroneous. The only thing being replayed is opposition disunity and the feeling of déjà vu is overwhelming.
The realignment of forces currently taking place is evidence that nothing would remain the same. The factors, platforms and personalities that helped Obi garner six million votes three years ago, no longer exist or have been significantly altered. The candidate, himself, abandoned LP on which he ran, sought comfort ever so briefly with ADC, and has landed in what looks like his comfort zone – the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
Interestingly, many of those who stood shoulder to shoulder with him in 2023 are not on his latest voyage. His erstwhile running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed darted to the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) from where he’s been lobbing stones at his former boss.
“Someone who got Labour Party ticket so easily, should have stayed to fix the problems of Labour Party however difficult they were,” he said in a recent media outing.
“I stood and I earned the wrath of many because I said ‘come and reconcile’ in Labour Party. Only for me to hear, to read it, and to even view it in the news. Here’s my former leader, my boss who I believe in, saying wherever there is a quarrel, he will walk away. So, there is a quarrel in Nigeria, you will walk away? These are things that don’t add up.”
In Abia State, one of Obi’s most vocal acolytes, Enyinayya Abaribe, who joined him in ADC didn’t defect to NDC. Instead he has moved to LP which is currently in power in the state in his bid to return to the Senate. In Lagos State, where Labour posted a stunning upset in the 2023 presidential contest, the party’s gubernatorial candidate at those elections, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, has chosen to remain in ADC.
Obi’s major weakness was his inability to penetrate the far North. That is down to historic ethnic prejudices as much as his weaponisation of religion. Now, he has foes on two sides. An embittered ADC feels betrayed by the manner and timing of the departures of the ‘OK’ duo. For their part, the ruling APC, determined to cut him down to size, is unrelenting in its attacks. It has also adopted a very aggressive youth-focused vote drive into the Southeast heartland.
The party’s governors in the zone are in a fight to prove their electoral worth. Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, calls the 2023 Obi landslides in the region a ‘political accident’ that won’t be repeated.
To his credit, the former Anambra governor has tried to reach out to the far North. His working arrangement with Kwankwaso in the so-called ‘OK Movement’ is progress of sorts – albeit a modest one. The partnership could deliver an improved electoral performance for him in Kano but not at 2023 levels given the realignments here.
Kwankwaso now faces a formidable APC which has within its ranks Governor Abba Yusuf, Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin, former National Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, former governor Ibrahim Shekarau, ministers and other federal government appointees.
Atiku acknowledged the balance of power change in Kano recently when he stated that Kwankwaso only controlled half of the state. It is widely held that in the rest of the North his electoral influence is greatly limited.
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This campaign is already shaping to be very dirty. Obi played the religious card heavily in 2023. It paid off handsomely in Northern areas with significant Christian populations such as Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba and Southern Kaduna.
Unfortunately, that same card drove many Northern Muslims into the arms of APC because he presented himself as the Christian candidate. Now, it’s beginning to look like all that is coming back to bite him. Social media is already crawling with memes mischievously referring to his famous investment in a brewery.
Datti-Ahmed argues that it’s unlikely the North would back Obi and his potential running mate. He also raises questions about Kwankwaso’s political posture in relation to the LP candidate during the 2023 elections. “Why didn’t Kwankwaso support Peter Obi in 2022/23? What changed between 2022 and 2023?” he asked.
At a Chatham House, London, appearance he had insisted that based on education and political experience, he was a superior candidate to the ex-Anambra governor.
As things stand, APC will present Tinubu unchallenged for re-election, with the support of governors in over 30 states. That’s a lot of incumbency muscle in one arsenal. ADC will put up Atiku with much of his support down South amputated by the recent defections. The exits from the party have also drained its momentum, causing it to look less and less like a winning proposition.
NDC’s candidate would be Obi barring any last minute judicial surprises. But he faces many challenges, not least being the fact that much of the shine he exuded in 2023 has faded in the face of increased scrutiny. There’s also little evidence that his new platform has the strength or appeal to prevail in 24 states of the federation.
Given the requirements of nationwide spread and the fragmentation of the opposition, it is safe to say that the 2027 election is still the incumbent’s to lose.
