2027: State of the parties (1)
In recent times, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has been the butt of attacks by some opposition parties, especially the faction-ridden African Democratic Congress (ADC). A key accusation is
In recent times, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has been the butt of attacks by some opposition parties, especially the faction-ridden African Democratic Congress (ADC). A key accusation is that the commission is in league with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), to enthrone a one-party system. In reality, however, there are 21 parties in the country, including two newly-registered ones. Beyond the drama and rhetoric, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Yusuf Alli, Deputy Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu, and a team of correspondents takes a close look at the parties seeking to reshape the nation's electoral map in 2027. Additional reports are from: Ahmad Rufa'i (Jigawa), Abdulrahman Abdullahi (Zamfara), Augustine Okezie (Katsina), Abdulgafar Alabelewe ( Kaduna), Rasaq Ibrahim (Ekiti), Justina Asishana (Niger), Ernest Nwokolo (Ogun), Toba Adedeji (Osun), Yinka Adeniran (Oyo) And Tosin Tope ( Ondo).
Barely twenty days to party primaries scheduled to hold between April 23rd and May 30th, and 288 days to the Presidential and National Assembly elections on January 16, 2027, attention is shifting to political parties on their preparedness. Are the nation's 21 parties in good shape? Poll watchers and potential voters would be looking at their national spread, while assessing whether they have the right leaders to woo the electorate.
Before the 2023 poll, there were 18 parties but in order to enhance participation, three more have been registered by INEC. Actually, the court compelled the electoral body to register Youth Party (YP) and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), it registered one other in line with Sections 222 and 223 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended), relevant provisions of the Electoral Act, 2022, and the Commission's Regulations and Guidelines for Political Parties.
According to INEC Chairman, Prof. Joash Amupitan, the commission received 171 letters of intent from associations seeking registration as parties but only 14 associations scaled the initial prequalification stage, while eight successfully uploaded their documents on the commission's dedicated portal. "Following final assessment and verification of compliance with constitutional and statutory requirements, only the Democratic Leadership Alliance (DLA) met all conditions and was consequently registered as a political party with effect from 5th February, 2026," he said.
The existing 21 parties are: Accord (A), Action Alliance (AA), Africa Action Congress (AAC), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Action Democratic Party (ADP), All Progressives Congress (APC), All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA); Allied Peoples Movement (APM); Action Peoples Party (APP), Boot Party (BP) and the Labour Party (LP).
Others are the National Rescue Movement (NRM); New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP); Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Peoples Redemption Party (PRP); Social Democratic Party (SDP); the Young Progressive Party (YPP); Youth Party (YP); Zenith Labour Party (ZLP); Democratic Leadership Alliance (DLP); and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
HOW THE PARTIES STAND
SOUTHWEST
LAGOS STATE
Eyes are on Lagos State for obvious reasons. It is the base of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who was governor here for eight years between 1999 and 2007.
Also, between that time and now, the state has remained the stronghold of the progressive bloc. It has produced three disciples of the president as governors. Tinubu's successor, Babatunde Fashola (SAN) (2007 - 2015), handed over to Akinwunmi Ambode (2015 - 2019), who also handed over to Babajide Sanwo-Olu, who will bow out next year at the expiration of his of eight-year tenure.
But 2023 was a turning point. To observers, the ruling party was poll-weary. It was the first time the National Leader was not at home to coordinate or supervise the mobilisation. Lagos APC suddenly ran into turbulence. Tinubu, who has never lost election before, was defeated in Lagos during the historic presidential poll. It was unexpected.
But the chapter bounced back, retaining the state during the subsequent governorship election. It also won the three senatorial seats and 20 of the 24 House of Representatives seats. Currently, 38 of the 40 House of Assembly members belong to the ruling party. Also, the chairmen of the pre-existing 20 local governments and additional 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) are members of the APC.
Ahead of next year's polls, leaders of four political parties - APC, PDP, ADC and LP - have returned to the drawing board. But it is evident that the last three are assailed by protracted leadership crisis that has affected the chapters.
PDP
Since 1999, PDP has struggled in Lagos. It is perpetually divided, held down by intra-party friction, mistrust and lack of reconciliation.
It has never waxed stronger. It has always been in consistent decline. Prominent chieftains have defected to the ruling APC; some to ADC and few others to LP. At every election season, it is always in want of an acceptable governorship candidate.
The chapter revolves around the personality of the former Deputy National Chairman, Chief Bode George, a Board of Trustees (BoT) member. The party chairman and other officers operate under his shadow.
Other notable members with George are Senator Kofo Akerele-Bucknor, an aggrieved former deputy governor of Lagos; Alhaja Aduke Maina, Mrs. Onikepo Oshodi, and Gen. Tajudeen Olanrewaju. The commonality is that all of them are not associated with any history of recognised mobilisation prowess in the fold. Although the eminent pharmacist and Afenifere chieftain, Jimi Agbaje, is still in the party, he is dormant.
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George, a retired Navy commodore and former governor of Ondo State, is more active doing live television interviews. He has not been able to turn the platform around. In recent times, the party has become further depleted, following the exit of some chieftains to the ADC.
Also, party members at local government and ward levels are confused as many of them can hardly comprehend the unresolved leadership crisis that has polarised the platform into Nyesom Wike and Taminu Turaki camps.
George belongs to the Turaki group, which recently lost out at the Appeal Court. Its controversial national convention at Ibadan was nullified by the court. The camp is now fighting a battle of survival at the Supreme Court.
If it loses the battle at the apex court, that would have implications for the George caucus.
Reminiscent of the past, Lagos PDP would not be a threat to the APC at next year's presidential, governorship and legislative elections.
ADC
Lagos ADC is half of the decimated and disprited PDP chapter that is gasping for breath.
It took off from the Ketu-Alapere, Lagos residence of Coker Onita, a journalist. Pioneer members are defectors from PDP, among them Alhaji Rahman Owokoniran, a former commissioner in the state, and Captain Tunji Shelle, former PDP chairman.
Efforts by the Interim National Secretary, Chief Rauf Aregbesola, to plant the seed of the party in Alimoso sub-zone, was without success. The initial moves ended in a fiasco.
Recently, Lagos ADC chairman, George Ashiru, held a meeting with other PDP chieftains in a bid to attract more members. "We in ADC are poised to challenge APC 's dominance in Lagos," he told reporters after the parley.
At the meeting were Dr. Bimbola Ogunkelu, a former federal minister and PDP BoT member, Chief Muritala Ashorobi, former chairman of PDP, and other stalwarts who have partisan scores to settle with George.
Basking in the euphoria of 2023 presidential results in Lagos, LP governorship candidate Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, has defected to the party, with the hope of flying its flag during the governorship election.
So far, Lagos ADC has not been able to pull any crowd. Its arrowheads are little-known and hidden from view. In that obscurity, the platform lacks appeal to Lagosians, at least for now. It would be a miracle if it makes any impact during the elections.
LP
Lagos LP is permanenly “structureless.” In every election circle, it transforms into a borrowed platform; always up for grabs.
Yet, from that low life, it bounced into reckoning in 2023 when it was adopted by the Obidient Movement, made up of fanatical supporters of former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, who thrived on the twin factors of ethnicity and religion.
The party is characterised by an obscure leadership. Its tentacles across the 57 councils are doubtful. But if Obi is running on the platform of any party, kinsmen who voted for him while in LP are most likely to gravitate to any one he adopts for 2027 polls.
However, in the absence of Obi, the chapter, for now, is like a carcass.
APC
APC is the most formidable platform in the state capable of withstanding electoral storm and stress, with the assurance of victory. The question is: what would be the margin at the presidential and governorship elections.
This query is relevant given the pattern of electoral fatigue and voter aloofness in the state in recent times.
At the inaugural meeting of the newly elected state party officers, the chairman, Pastor Cornelius Ojelabi, reflected on the pending challenge. "We are coming on board at a critical period. We are saddled with the responsibility for 2027 elections. How we are going to change the narrative of our performance in the 2023 presidential election should preoccupy our minds," he said.
Since its devastating and humiliating fall at the presidential poll four years ago, apparently due to over-confidence, Lagos APC has not been sleeping on duty. During the e-registration, the party under the supervision of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat and party chairman Ojelabi, aggressively mobilised members for the exercise. The chapter also roused vast supporters and other Lagosians for the voter registration.
Being the ruling party, APC has the advantage of incumbency, which if properly deployed, could aid its victory at the polls. Its presence is clearly intimidating to the opposition parties.
No other party has its reach and tentacles, particularly at the grassroots. With good synergy among the stakeholders - the governor, the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), commissioners, special advisers, other aides, board members, federal and state lawmakers, council chairmen, party officers at wards and local governments, community development associations; youths and women groups - winning the state should not be a herculean task.
The Renewed Hope Ambassadors, led by Chief of Staff, Tayo Ayinde, is an important campaign structure. It is decentralised and grassroots-based, linking the party to the nooks and crannies. The operators engage in research and collate data on how to improve the strength of the party and explain the initiative to locals to enable the president's re-election bid gain wider acceptability.
Greater is the number of former office holders who are active and committed to sustaining the party's hold on the state. Also, in some instances, the synergy with traditional institutions and community and religious leaders is most likely to produce positive results in rural areas.
The GAC, now led by elderstatesman Oluyole Olusi, is made up of elders from the five divisions of the state and three senatorial districts. Sometimes, it acts as the moral compass. Although many of them are now octogenarian, their advice could be invaluable.
Majority of the National Assembly and House of Assembly members are popular among the people because they attract dividends of democracy to their districts, zones and constituencies.
Each of the senatorial districts, constituencies, local governments and wards also have their apex leadership structures that serve as links between grassroot cells and the state leadership.
Performance is key in Lagos. Fundamentally, it is the bedrock of legitimacy which successive governments strive to acquire. Across the sectors, Governor Sanwo-Olu can flaunt his scorecard. There is no district or division where the impact of government is not felt due to his steady infrastructure battles. In areas where there are glaring omissions, gaps, defects and hollows in sectoral scorecard, he is also sensitive to public complaints through the existing feedback mechanism and eager to instantly correct the mistakes in general administration.
However, the bigger the party, the bigger the headache. The bitter struggle by many aspirants for comparatively fewer slots often unleash anxiety and tension in APC. Crisis arising from periodic nomination politics and slow pace of reconciliation have often led to withdrawal from party work by grassroots mobilisers devoted to the cause of cherished aspirants on poll days.
Besides the tool of ethnicity wielded by rival, partisan non-indigenes, unresolved bitterness over the outcome of primaries have resulted in the defeat of the party in certain areas like Eti-Osa, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Amuwo Odofin, Ojo and Oshodi-Isolo.
Although the two main party caucuses - Justice Forum and Mandate Group - have been banned due to their divisive tendencies, they often rise from the dead, like a Phoenix, as important channels of mobilisation. The stiff competition between the two camps often lead to intra-party discord and loss of cohesion.
Also, many young members now raise valid questions over what they perceive as inequitable distribution of rewards for political labours after elections. As gerontocrats in the party deploy their weight in getting elected and appointive positions for their kith and kin, there is a growing feeling that the corridor of power is solely designed for the projection of the children of legends, and to the exclusion of the ordinary masses in the party.
However, Ojelabi, who disagreed with the criticisms, described APC as a cohesive and equitable platform. He said complaints are not ignored and crisis resolution is effective in the party.
The 2027 contest, he warns, would not be business as usual, urging party faithful to prepare for the tasks ahead.
"All of us should go out to deliver on January 16, 2027. We can only achieve it through team spirit, cooperation and unity."
EKITI STATE
Ekiti's political space is once again coming alive as momentum gathers for the next electoral cycle, with parties rebuilding structures and testing their grassroots appeal.
Although there are over 13 registered parties operating in the state, only a few command visible presence and sustained influence. Many of the smaller ones exist largely on paper or play marginal roles, often aligning with bigger platforms during election periods.
The struggle for power in here continues to revolve around three parties - APC, PDP and ADC. The trio hold the ace and dictate the direction of political engagement in the state.
A careful assessment of the standings, according to keen observers of Ekiti politics, shows that APC is on top of the ladder going by current realities. The party is firmly in control, buoyed by its hold on power and strong grassroots structure.
In contrast, PDP is said to be struggling to remain relevant amid self-inflicted internal challenges, a development that has affected its cohesion. Meanwhile, ADC is gradually positioning itself as a third force, drawing attention from aggrieved politicians and electorate seeking an alternative platform.
APC
APC remains the party to beat in Ekiti, bolstered by power of incumbency and a formidable network of heavyweights. At the centre of this dominance is Governor Biodun Oyebanji, whose administration has leveraged what observers describe as politics of inclusiveness to consolidate support across party lines.
Many of the key figures who hold the ace in Ekiti politics have now aligned with the ruling APC, pledging loyalty to the governor. Oyebanji enjoys the backing of influential figures like former governors Kayode Fayemi, Niyi Adebayo and Segun Oni, as well as Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele.
Significantly, APC has also benefited from the support of a prominent PDP figure, ex-governor Ayodele Fayose, whose alignment with Oyebanji has reshaped the political landscape. The strength of the party does not lie only in elite backing but also in its entrenched grassroots structures across all 16 local government areas of the state.
However, beneath this dominance are subtle cracks. The fallout from recent local government primaries has created pockets of discontent among party members. There are also rumblings over alleged moves to deny some state and National Assembly lawmakers return tickets, a development that could trigger internal resistance.
Concerns have also been raised over the defections of some APC chieftains to the ADC, including former Speaker Gboyega Aribisogan, an indication of underlying grievances within the ruling party.
Observers warn that unresolved post-primary tensions may affect grassroots mobilisation if not carefully managed. In addition, prevailing economic hardship, driven partly by rising fuel prices linked to global tensions, could shape voter sentiment if conditions do not improve.
But, analysts note that the interplay of incumbency, funding advantage, party cohesion and elite endorsement tilts the electoral balance significantly in favour of APC.
PDP
Once a dominant force in Ekiti politics, PDP is currently grappling with one of its most challenging periods. Since it lost power in 2018, the party has been enmeshed in prolonged internal crisis, marked by leadership disputes, weak coordination and a series of high-profile defections that have significantly eroded its base.
One of the most notable exits is that of former Deputy Senate Minority Leader, Biodun Olujimi, whose defection to APC dealt a major blow to the party's electoral strength. Other prominent figures who have left include former deputy governors Tai Sikiru Lawal and Olusola Eleka, further weakening the party's structure.
Compounding PDP's woes is the stance of Fayose, one of its most influential leaders, who has openly backed Oyebanji's re-election bid. Though still a member of the PDP, his position has created confusion within the party and undermined efforts to build a united front.
Investigations revealed that the party currently lacks a clear rallying point, with many members either demoralised or quietly aligning with APC. The crisis at the national level has also cast a shadow on its state chapter, limiting its ability to organise effectively.
Despite these setbacks, PDP retains pockets of organic support, particularly among loyalists who recall its previous stints in power.
ADC
ADC is gradually carving out space as a viable alternative. The party's governorship candidate, Dare Bejide, a former Secretary to the Ekiti State Government and ex-Nigerian High Commissioner to Canada, has expanded political options for voters seeking a departure from the traditional APC-PDP rivalry.
The ADC has gained traction among segments of the electorate disillusioned with the established parties. Its message of a fresh political direction has resonated with voters who are weary of recurring alignments. The party has also benefited from defections from APC and PDP, attracting aggrieved politicians and strengthening its ranks across the state.
However, analysts opine that many of its leaders are spent forces and disgruntled politicians with little or no electoral value compared to the APC, which parades heavyweights and well-resourced campaign machinery.
Unlike APC and PDP, the party lacks entrenched grassroots structure in all 16 local government areas, and issues of funding and mobilisation remain significant challenges.
Analysts note that while the ADC has succeeded in generating public interest, translating this goodwill into electoral success will depend on its ability to build strong alliances, strengthen its structure and gain grassroots appeal.
OGUN STATE
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APC
The Ogun State chapter of APC is navigating a delicate political landscape as it prepares for the 2027 general elections.
An uneasy calm currently pervades the party following the conclusion of its congresses - from ward to state level - the outcomes of which have exposed underlying cohesion issues.
Former Governor Ibikunle Amosun and his camp, as well as Senator Gbenga Daniel and his loyalists, are reportedly aggrieved, having been sidelined by their successor, Governor Dapo Abiodun, in party affairs. This development raises red flags about internal divisions that could affect the party's electoral fortunes in 2027, especially if viable opposition candidates emerge.
A key factor that may shape the party's prospects - positively or negatively - is how it manages grievances related to the allocation of governorship and senatorial tickets, whether through direct primaries or consensus, in the coming months.
Several political heavyweights are eyeing Senate seats, particularly in Ogun East and Ogun Central. In Ogun West, attention is focused on who succeeds the current occupant, Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, should he relinquish the seat to pursue his governorship ambition.
His aspiration is already fueling internal tensions and could trigger protest votes if not carefully managed.
Despite these challenges, APC remains the party to beat in Ogun State. There is currently no opposition strong enough to wrest power from it, as both PDP and ADC remain largely weakened and disorganised.
Key drivers of APC include Governor Abiodun, who is working to maintain the party's dominance, alongside elected members of the State and National Assemblies and local government chairmen, all of whom serve as critical vote mobilisers. Former governor and party leader, Aremo Olusegun Osoba, remains a stabilising figure, as does his loyalist, Senator Gbenga Kaka, among others.
Being the party in power at both the state and federal levels gives APC a significant advantage. Its chances of retaining control in 2027 remain bright, but this depends on its ability to foster unity, resolve internal conflicts, appease aggrieved members, and engage the electorate with clear, relatable policies that address the aspirations of the people.
So far, ten strong governorship aspirants have emerged, the latest being an agricultural economist and World Bank development expert, Otunba Tunji Oredipe, who has declared his ambition to contest the 2027 poll on the platform of APC.
Oredipe, who is from Ogun East Senatorial District, pledges to ensure visibility for every community, economic value for the grassroots and make accountability the thrust of his administration if given the opportunity to lead the state.
PDP
These are not the best of times for the PDP in Ogun State. It is grappling with deepening internal divisions and declining influence, raising concerns about its readiness for next year's elections.
Once a formidable force that dominated the state between 2003 and 2011, PDP at the time boasted of prominent figures such as former President Olusegun Obasanjo, ex-governors Daniel and Amosun, incumbent Abiodun, Senator Iyabo Obasanjo, Hon. Kayode Amusan, Senator Kola Bajomo, Chief Agboola Alausa, and others. Today, however, many of these figures have defected to APC, leaving the party struggling to maintain cohesion.
Since losing control of the state government in 2011 - and with it, access to institutional funding - the party has faced an uphill task rebuilding its structure and regaining public trust. Party financing has largely become an individual burden, reinforcing the notion that “he who pays the piper dictates the tune.”
During the era of late Senator Buruji Kashamu, who was the sole financier until his death in 2020, he wielded significant control over party structures and candidate selection. This contributed to factionalism and weakened unity.
A similar pattern appears to be unfolding under Hon. Oladipupo Adebutu, now widely regarded as the principal financier. Disagreements persist among stakeholders, many of whom accuse the leadership of running the party as a “one-man show.” These tensions are rooted in unresolved disputes from past primaries and congresses.
The situation has been worsened by defections, including members elected to the State House of Assembly in 2023, such as Abdul-Rasheed Kashamu, who have since joined APC. These departures have depleted the party's ranks and undermined its credibility among voters.
Currently, the PDP's notable figures include its 2023 governorship candidate and de facto leader, Adebutu; former governorship aspirant, Otunba Segun Showunmi; and state chairman, Yomi Tella.
Meanwhile, former leaders such as Dr. Sikirulai Ogundele and Abdul-Kabir Adekunle Akinlade (Triple A) defected to APC, citing Adebutu's overbearing influence and efforts to reconcile aggrieved members have achieved only limited success, despite interventions by national leaders. Reconciliation committees have often had their recommendations ignored or only partially implemented, allowing divisions to persist.
These internal challenges are reflected in the PDP's electoral performance. In recent local government and by-elections - including a federal constituency and councillorship contests - the party failed to mount a serious challenge, losing all positions to APC.
ADC
ADC remains a fringe party in Ogun and is largely unknown, except for its prominence during the 2019 elections when Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka contested against Abiodun and lost.
Since he defected to APC in 2023 - where he now represents Yewa North/Imeko-Afon Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives - the ADC has slipped back into obscurity.
Although the party is attempting a comeback ahead of 2027, its efforts have been hampered by leadership crises and weak internal cohesion.
Key figures in its resurgence include Otunba Dr. Femi Soluade, the state chairman since November 2024; Otunba Jimi Lawal, a former aide to ex-Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai; ICT expert Dr. Biodun Collins Ogundipe, a governorship aspirant; and Deputy State Chairman, Prince Adedeji Babatunde Abiodun.
However, the party was hit by a major crisis in February when it announced the suspension of its state chairman, Soluade, over alleged disruptive conduct at a party event in Abeokuta. It had earlier passed a vote of no confidence in him, accusing him of disrupting the public declaration of Lawal's governorship ambition.
In response, the party installed deputy chairman, Prince Adedeji Babatunde Abiodun, in his place. The move was seen as a countermeasure after Soluade himself had earlier announced the suspension of Lawal over alleged anti-party activities.
Since then, ADC has been plagued by internal acrimony, weak membership drive, and loss of direction. Its ability to build cohesion and mount a serious challenge in 2027 remains uncertain.
Other Parties
Other fringe parties in the state - including LP, Accord Party, NNPP, APGA, and several others - either operating independently or in potential coalitions, currently stand little chance of winning elective offices in 2027.
ONDO STATE
In Ondo, APC since taking over the reins of power has entrenched itself as the dominant political force in the state. The ruling party's electoral victories at the grassroots have allowed it remain firmly in control.
The current administration of Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa has further reinforced that position by benefiting from the traditional advantages of incumbency; being in control of state machinery and political networks.
The party's overwhelming presence in the State House of Assembly has also underscored its institutional strength with the government enjoying legislative backing that allows it to implement policies with minimal resistance.
Interestingly, APC's performance at the November 2024 governorship election where Aiyedatiwa secured a landslide victory, winning in all 18 local government areas with a total of 366,781 votes to defeat his closest rival, Agboola Ajayi, then of PDP, who polled 117,845 votes, reflected a strong voter base and a well-oiled mobilisation structure that furthered strengthened the party.
The electoral victory bolstered the party's grassroots network, loyalists, support groups, and entrenched local leaders, making the APC remain visible and active even outside election cycles.
Amid this is the party's alignment with the government under President Tinubu, leveraging "federal power" to further strengthen the party's standing in the state.
The most significant weakness of APC in Ondo today is its deepening internal divisions. Rivalries among key figures have created parallel power blocs, each jostling for influence ahead of future electoral cycles.
At the centre of the tension are competing interests between leading political actors like Aiyedatiwa and Interior Minister Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo. While both figures publicly affirm party unity, underlying disagreements have manifested in disputes during ward congresses and stakeholder meetings.
The growing tension may ultimately determine whether APC consolidates power or gradually weakens from within.
Already, political observers in the state have suggested that APC has quietly split into two blocs - one loyal to Aiyedatiwa and the other to the Tunji-Ojo camp.
Amid the emerging alignments, the supporters of the governor have accused the minister of wielding increasing influence within the state chapter of APC, citing his ties with party stakeholders and involvement in mobilisation efforts for President Tinubu's re-election.
On the other hand, allies of Tunji-Ojo have criticised the governor for allegedly not doing enough to strengthen party structures in the state, despite being the state's chief executive.
A party chieftain in Owo, Mr Boluwaji Adegoke said the perceived differences between the governor and the minister may ultimately affect APC, noting that further infighting will come ahead of the 2028 election.
"Both Aiyedatiwa and Tunji-Ojo are stalwarts of the APC. Although by virtue of the constitution, the governor is the recognised leader of the party and he commands respect.
"Tunji-Ojo is a federal minister from the state and appointed by President Tinubu and has continued to build influence in the party by filling the gap being left by the governor. It's more reason why people and party members are associating with the federal minister than the incumbent," he said.
These divisions are not merely personal but also reflected broader struggles over control of party structures, succession planning, and access to political resources.
As the 2027 and 2028 electoral cycles approach, these tensions are likely to intensify.
The Opposition Factor
PDP
Ordinarily, such dominance would be contested by a vibrant opposition. However, in Ondo, the opposition remains largely fragmented and unable to mount a sustained challenge.
Internal crises, leadership tussles, and weak grassroots structures have plagued rival parties, leaving APC as the default choice for many voters. The crisis of factional division, persistent infighting which has hobbled PDP leadership at national level also affects the Ondo chapter. The party has broken into two wings with one loyal to Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike and the other to Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde.
Although, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has recognised the National Working Committee (NWC) supported by the minister, in Ondo; two factions - one led by Olaniyi Ogungbuji of the Wike-backed faction and Dupe Aisida have held sway in the state chapter.
The factional crisis has made the party to fail in maintaining presence in the three senatorial districts of the state.
ADC
ADC is also battling with leadership crisis especially as INEC has de-recognised the David Mark-led executive of the party in compliance with judgments of the Court of Appeal.
The decision of the electoral body has also affected the state chapter, although, the party is relatively not popular in Ondo compared to PDP.
The leadership crisis has further deepened the strength and weakness of the ADC in Ondo especially for aspirants who have shown interest to contest for various offices under the party's banner.
However, the APC's greatest strength being its concentration of power may also be its greatest risk. For now, it remains firmly in control.
For the opposition parties, until they address the contradictions within, they would continue to face division and more crises.
OSUN STATE
As the 2026 Osun State governorship poll and the 2027 general election approach, parties are positioning themselves and recalibrating their strategies.
For now, it looks like a three-horse race between Accord (the ruling party in the state), APC and ADC. The PDP is in peripheral existence; it's not a vibrant brand.
One of the major strengths of APC is that since it left government in 2022, it has not lost many members, except former Governor Aregbesola who was expelled alongside his allies for anti-party activities.
Rather, APC has welcomed strong politicians from the ruling party in the state into its fold. They include Senators Francis Fadahunsi (Osun East) and Olubiyi Fadeyi (Osun Central), House of Representatives members Oluwole Oke, Sanya Omirin, Taofeek Ajilesoro and a former National Deputy Chairman of PDP, Chief Shuib Oyedokun, among others.
Similarly, it has strong leaders across the nine Federal Constituencies of the state who can muscle votes for the party in the forthcoming poll.
The party has leaders in the major towns who normally determine the winners of any election. They include Nigeria Ports Authority (NPA) Executive Director, Olalekan Badmus and Senator Ajibola Basiru, National Secretary of the party, who are strong in Osogbo and Olorunda; Kayode Oduoye (Ikirun), former Governor Gboyega Oyetola in Iragbiji (Boripe), Fadahunsi, Omirin, Ajilesoro in Ijesa land, Chief Bisi Akande and Fadeyi in Ila-Orangun, Babayemi in Gbongan, Bola Oyebamiji (gubernatorial candidate) in Ikire.
One of the major weaknesses of APC is the likelihood of being unable to secure genuine reconciliation from all the aspirants who were disqualified from the gubernatorial contest. Former National Secretary Iyiola Omisore, who is from the Ile-Ife kingdom, is not really pleased with the party, hence he may not work for its victory in 2026 and 2027.
Also, APC may not have a good outing in Ede South and North because it is the home base of Governor Ademola Adeleke who has done well in the area of infrastructure for them.
Some local government areas like Egbedore, Orolu, Iwo, Ayedire, Odo-Otin and Ola-Oluwa may support the reelection of Ademola Adeleke and President Tinubu.
One of the major strengths of Accord Party is that it has fused into one with PDP. Adeleke has given life to Accord, which is now strategically placed on the ballot as the first political party ahead of APC.
His influence as the incumbent governor will go a long way to secure the support of the people - especially civil servants – because he prioritised their welfare, promotion and payment of salary arrears owed by the last APC administration in the state.
Similarly, the infrastructural drive of Adeleke in some parts of the state will win votes for him in Ilesa, Ede, Osogbo, Ila-Orangun, Iwo and other places where he is constructing rural roads.
The remaining federal lawmakers, Sen. Lere Oyewumi and six House of Representatives members with 23 state House of Assembly lawmakers will pull a lot of support for Adeleke in 2026.
One of the weaknesses of Accord Party is poor or low voters enlightenment/education. Many local electorate do not know about the party and its ideology. Also many who know Adeleke with PDP, may not have been well-informed of his new party.
Also, the party's lack of structure across the state will mitigate against getting the needed votes. It will rely strongly on PDP for the re-election of Adeleke.
Some typical members of PDP may not support Adeleke in Accord because of their loyalty to their party.
The Aregbesola factor, being a two-term governor, who is National Secretary of ADC, will also influence the outcome of the 2026 and 2027 elections.
He and his allies had left APC for ADC in 2025. The party has been mobilising ever since with the support of ex-Speaker, Najeem Salam, ex-Secretary to State Government, Moshood Adeoti, Senator Adelere Oriolowo, ex-APC chairman, Razaq Salinsile, ex-APC chairman, Adelowo Adebiyi and others.
Their camp suffered a setback when one of its key leaders, Adeoti dumped the Aregbesola-backed ADC group.
Sources within the Omoluabi Progressives, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Adeoti left because he failed to secure the group's support for his governorship bid.
Adeoti's leaving the group may affect the party's chances because he is a strong politician under whose chairmanship of APC, Aregbesola defeated a sitting governor, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola.
With Adeleke's defection to Accord, one Adebayo Adedamola a close ally of Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, emerged candidate of PDP. This development may divide the vote meant for Adeleke if eventually, the party is on the governorship ballot in 2026.
OYO STATE
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The 2027 Oyo State governorship election is shaping up to be a highly competitive and unpredictable contest, with various individuals and parties vying for prominence. The incumbent PDP and the principal opposition APC, are preparing for an intense confrontation, while other parties are emerging as potential threats.
PDP
Holding on to incumbency factor, the party is built around the governor who determines its structure and path. PDP is considered the frontrunner in the election. Makinde's administration has been praised for its infrastructure projects, investment initiatives, and public-facing governance. The governor's decision to announce his desire to hand over the leadership mantle to a successor within his party has triggered a competitive primary election, with several aspirants vying for the party's ticket.
The party's strength lies in its well-organised structure, the governor's popularity, and the party's ability to mobilize resources and supporters. However, it also faces internal challenges, including factionalisation and disagreements among its members.
APC: A strong opposition
APC, with its well-established machinery and local leaders embedded across the state, is the main opposition party. It is expected to field a strong candidate, with Senator Sarafadeen Alli, a heavyweight, being touted as a likely contender.
The party's strength lies in its organisational structure, the experience of its candidates, and its ability to attract support from various quarters. However, it also faces challenges, including internal conflicts and the need to appeal to a diverse electorate.
The party has been grappling with internal disunity, which has significant implications for its chances in the 2027 elections. Despite the challenges, efforts are being made to reconcile the warring factions and present a united front. The party's disunity has been a recurring issue, with various factions and interest groups vying for power and influence within the party.
Accord Party: A potential game-changer
The Accord Party, led by Oriyomi Hamzat, a popular media personality, is emerging as a potential threat to PDP and APC. His candidacy is built on his visibility as a broadcaster and community figure, with a strong appeal to youth and women.
Accord's strength lies in its unconventional approach, Hamzat's popularity, and the party's ability to attract support from disaffected voters. However, it also faces challenges, including the need to build a strong organisational structure and appeal to a broader electorate.
Struggle with disunity
The APC's disunity in Oyo has been a major concern for the party's leaders and members. It has been plagued by infighting, with different factions and interest groups vying for power and influence. This has led to a lack of cohesion and coordination, which could ultimately affect the party's performance in the 2027 elections.
PDP, the ruling party in the state, is likely to capitalise on APC's weaknesses and exploit the divisions within the party. Moreso, the party has announced that it will adopt consensus option in the selection of flagbearers for every elective offices in the 2027 elections.
The disunity in the APC has been attributed to various factors, including the party's failure to resolve internal conflicts and the lack of a clear leadership structure. The party's leaders have also been accused of being more interested in pursuing their personal interests than in building a strong and united party. These factors have contributed to the party's poor performance in recent elections, and have raised concerns about its chances in the 2027 elections.
The APC's success in the state will depend on its ability to unite and present a strong, cohesive front. The party's leaders must work together to build a strong and united front, and they must also focus on addressing the needs of the people. With a united party and a strong grassroots structure, APC can regain its footing and emerge victorious in the 2027 elections.
ADC
ADC in Oyo is gearing up for the 2027 governorship election with a renewed focus on unity and cohesion among its members. The party recently held an expanded stakeholders' meeting, where leaders and aspirants reaffirmed their commitment to the party's core vision of credible governance, internal democracy, and grassroots mobilisation. Chief Niyi Aborisade, a prominent legal practitioner and party chieftain, has emerged as a key figure in the party, with some considering him a potential candidate for the governorship.
Recently, a business mogul, Chief Adegboye Adegoke, popularly called Solution dumped PDP for ADC to pursue his governorship aspiration. It is not clear where the pendulum would swing, particularly with speculations rife that PDP could adopt ADC for the 2027 elections.
Despite internal conflicts and leadership disputes, ADC remains optimistic about its chances in the election. The party has assured stakeholders of its commitment to resolving these issues and presenting a united front, as it claims it is positioning itself as a credible alternative in Oyo politics.
Backers and supporters
PDP is backed by Governor Makinde, while APC has the support of various local leaders and politicians. Accord Party is largely driven by Hamzat's personal popularity and influence while Adegoke and Aborishade are backing ADC
In PDP, Makinde's endorsement is seen as crucial, and several aspirants are vying for his attention. Although, many of the aspirants have also proven to be ready to provide the financial resources for their ambition, it is widely believed that the governor still has a role to play in making funds available to execute the 'big project'.
Parties to beat
PDP and APC are the parties to beat in the 2027 Oyo governorship election, given their strong organisational structures and experienced candidates.
However, Accord Party, poses a significant threat with its unconventional approach and appeal to youth and women. Other parties, such as ADC may also emerge as threats if they are able to build strong campaigns and attract support from disaffected voters.
Factors that may determine who gets the ticket
Oyo politics can be intricate. However, certain factors that will shape the outcome include:
Zoning
There is a growing call by stakeholders to allow for power rotation to other zones of the state. Oyo State has five political zones, each with distinct characteristics and voting strengths. They are Ibadan, Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, Oyo, and Ibarapa. These groupings play a crucial role in shaping the state's politics and governance.
The Ibadan Zone is the most populous and influential; accounting for about 45 percent of the state's voting strength. It comprises 11 local governments and has significant representation in the State House of Assembly. The Oke-Ogun Zone, on the other hand, accounts for 23.4 percent of the state's voting strength and has 10 local governments. The Ogbomoso Zone has five local governments and accounts for about 14.1 percent of the voting strength.
Before the 2019 elections, Oke Ogun Zone had been clamouring for power shift and at different times vowed to vote only for the party that fielded the candidates from the area. However, the dream has not been realistic as they have only received with the Deputy Governor position.
The 2027 election provides another opportunity to see if the agitation will become realistic. Although it remains uncertain if Ibadan Zone will allow power shift to other zones, it is on record that, since the current Fourth Republic, only late Governor Alao-Akala from the Ogbomoso Zone has served as governor of the state (from 2007-2011).
Religion
Another key factor that may determine who the parties field is religious affiliation. The slot has rotated between Christians and Muslims in the Fourth Republic and no religion has been allowed more than eight years at the helm of affairs, irrespective of party. The current governor, being a Christian is also aware of the subtle desire of the Muslim community to have parties' field candidates from their faith. It remains unclear how far this would be a factor.
PDP's internal dynamics
The PDP's internal dynamics and the outcome of its primary election will also be crucial in determining the party's candidate. Makinde, during a recent stakeholders meeting, announced that the consensus option would be used to select the party's flagbearers for the 2027 election. But, it remains unclear the platform on which the candidates would contest, even though the governor has continued to express optimism that PDP would be on the ballot, come 2027.
In the political history of Oyo State, one of the unachieved dreams of the former governors was their inability to produce their successor. Despite the lofty transformation and developmental strides of late Governor Abiola Ajimobi, which made him earn the sobriquet, 'Father of Modern Oyo State' and 'Mr Transformation', amongst others, his desire to hand over to a successor from within their party could not be achieved. He was the first governor to serve a second term in office, as none of his predecessors could achieve the feat. The feat made him earn the accolade 'Jinx Breaker,' among his associates, supporters and friends within and outside the state.
Ultimately, in 2027 Oyo will be a test of the state's democratic mettle and the ability of its politicians to navigate the complex web of interests and alliances that define its politics. The outcome will have significant implications for the state's development and the well-being of its citizens, making it a closely watched election in the years to come.
NORTHWEST ZONE
JIGAWA STATE
The ruling APC in Jigawa State under Governor Umar Namadi continues to hold a commanding position across the state.
The party currently controls two senatorial seats, nine House of Representatives positions, and a dominant 29 seats in the State House of Assembly. These figures underscore its institutional strength and ample opportunities to win the remaining senatorial seat, two House Representatives tickets and one House of Assembly slot especially with the current PDP crisis.
Even with the resignation of the former Minister of Defence, Alhaji Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, in December last year, the indigenes of the state still hold several appointments at federal level. These include Deputy Chief of Staff to the President, Senator Ibrahim Hassan Hadejia; Minister of State for Education, Prof. Suwaiba Ahmed; and Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Sheda Science and Technology Complex (SHESTCO), Dr. Magaji Da'u Aliyu, as well as many chairmen and board members of several institutions and commissions. At party level, both the National Financial Secretary and Northwest Legal Adviser of APC are from Jigawa.
The party in the state is relying on Governor Namadi, Badaru, Sen. Ahmed Abdulhamid Malam Madori, Sen. Babangida Husaini Kazaure, the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Hon. Haruna Aliyu Dangyatin, Sen. Danladi Sankara, Alh. Isha Gerawa, Amb. Aminu Mohd Dalhatu, Hon. Faruk Adamu Aliyu, Eng. Magaji Da'u Aliyu, Hon. Abubakar Hassan Fulata MHR and Hon. Abubakar Makki Yalleman.
APC has good advantage to maintain power here, considering its influence at federal level, the 27 local government councils, with two serving senators, nine members of the House of Representatives and 29 members of the State House of Assembly.
Another factor, which will help APC to maintain its strength and control is the massive development of the state. There are many infrastructural and socio-economic development projects by Namadi's administration.
The governor has achieved a lot on road construction, agricultural transformation, economic empowerment programmes through interventions and support, as well as the construction of health and education facilities and the recruitment of medical personnel, teachers and civil servants.
Checks reveal that Sen. Ahmed Abdulhamid Malam Madori, Sen. Babangida Husaini Kazaure, Hon. Faruk Adamu Aliyu, who is an elder of the party and a former member House of Representatives, Dr. Magaji Da'u Aliyu, Amb. Halima Zakari are some of the chieftains with the capacity to organise and sponsor party rallies. .
Many party leaders cannot initiate, organise or mobilise political gatherings to promote APC at whatever level. Some cannot even appear at or attend APC rallies without the backing of Namadi, Badaru and the two senators.
Findings by our reporter in the state revealed internal disagreements arising from a breakdown in the political relationship between the governor and his predecessor and mentor, Badaru. This led to a serious crisis, which has now turned into enmity among them and their supporters.
The current crisis is said to have been initiated by a few individuals in high positions close to Namadi, allegedly driven by personal political grievances against Badaru, either during his tenure or after leaving office.
A source in the state revealed that these individuals are taking advantage of Namadi's trust, confidence and temperament, being easily provoked and sometimes acting without thorough investigation, especially on issues presented contrary to his expectations or interests. This, the source claimed, made the governor engage in a prolonged political conflict with his predecessor, who was instrumental to his emergence as governor in 2023.
The situation worsened after the APC congresses at ward, local government, state and the national convention. Those who are allegedly Badaru's loyalists have lost out in all APC executive positions through consensus. This alienation has now fueled possible defection of key party stalwarts to ADC.
Further findings by our reporter revealed that two former APC senators, an NNPP gubernatorial candidate and other prominent politicians in the state are set to register with ADC ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Speaking exclusively to our reporter, a member of the ADC Registration and Revalidation Committee, Hon. Abba Anas Adamu, confirmed the development.
According to him: “I can confirm to you that the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) gubernatorial candidate, Malam Aminu Ibrahim Ringim, former Senator Muhammad Sabo Nakudu and former Senator Ubali Shiru are involved.”
Political analysts warn that such internal fissures, if not properly managed, could weaken APC's stronghold ahead of future electoral cycles, especially with opposition figures like ex-Governor Sule
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Lamido retaining his influence and alternative platforms like the ADC gaining traction through high-profile defections. Despite being out of power for years, he has continued to demonstrate enduring political relevance.
The PDP chieftain, during the 2023 general elections, leveraged his political structure and influence alongside his son, who was the gubernatorial candidate, to secure significant electoral victories in his zone.
PDP, under his guidance, won one senatorial seat, two seats in the House of Representatives, and one seat in the state House of Assembly.
This performance is widely interpreted by analysts as a testament to Lamido's entrenched grassroots network and political machinery, which has remained intact even after his party lost control of the state in 2015.
Some political analysts sympathetic to Namadi and APC, considering the administration's performance so far, are of the opinion that the governor, with the intervention of President Tinubu and National Chairman of the party, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, should reconcile with his predecessor, Badaru. This, they believe, would halt the defection of the former minister's loyalists and supporters and facilitate the return of those who have already left the party.
They also suggested that Namadi can at his level seek the help of Tinubu to lure and influence Lamido and his supporters to join APC or enter into alliance with him in the upcoming elections to give him and the ruling party more strength for success in 2027.
ZAMFARA STATE
Zamfara politics has had a unique culture since the return of democracy in 1999.
Party strengths and weaknesses in the state lie with some actors considered to be gladiators in terms of delivering their zones to parties.
Former Governor Ahamad Sani (Yeriman Bakura) is the founder of the strongest political alliance in the state. In 2011 he overwhelmingly toppled an incumbent governor and his former Deputy Governor for eight years, Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi. The struggle to control the party structure pushed Shinkafi to defect to PDP. Despite incumbency power at both the center and state, Yeriman rallied behind his anointed governorship candidate, AbdulAziz Yari, and won the election.
Yari, under the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), served the state for two consecutive terms from 2011 to 2019. He was, however, accused of dictatorship in anointing candidates for 2019 general elections. This led to a serious internal party upheaval.
The crisis made eight gladiators to gang up against Yari. Tĥey were a former Minister of Defence, Brig. Gen. Mansur Dan Ali (rtd), Senator representing Zamfara Central, Kabiru Garba Marafa, member representing Kaura Namoda/ Birnin Magaji Federal constituency, Aminu Sani Jaji, a former Federal Permanent Secretary, Engr. Abu Magaji Gusau, Yari's Deputy Governor, Malan Ibrahim Wakkala Muhammad Liman, a former First Bank PLC Zonal Manager and the current Zamfara State Governor, Dauda Lawal, late Sagir Hamida and a former member representing Gusau/Tsafe Federal constituency Ibrahim Shehu Bakauye. The bitter legal battle made the Supreme Court declare APC votes null and void.
The mandate of Mukhtar Shehu Idris was annulled to pave the way for the emergence of the opposition party under Bello Matawalle, current Minister of State for Defence, as PDP flagbearer to lead the state for the first time.
The minister switched to APC and he was welcomed by the then Acting National Chairman and Yobe State Governor, Mai Mala Buni, in his efforts to retain power but lost to Lawal of PDP.
The current status of Zamfara politics is said to be characterised by one party system as all power brokers joined forces and solidified to be one. The previous G-8 member left out is Senator Kabiru Garba Marafa who has now joined ADC after withdrawal of his membership from APC.
KATSINA STATE
Only six parties have remained visible in Katsina. Out of the number, APC and ADC are well-known. PDP, SDP, NNPP, and LP are less serious.
APC
APC is fully set for the 2027 election considering the absence of party squabbles and the peaceful conclusion of its congresses and internal elections.
Again, the final endorsements of President Tinubu and Governor Dikko Umaru Radda, have set the seal on the expected victory of the party in the 2027 polls
Notable APC stakeholders led by Speaker of the Katsina State House of Assembly, Hon. Nasir Yahaya-Daura, led the endorsement. Speaking at the event, Yahaya-Daura said it was a unanimous decision reached by the people of the state because of Tinubu's and Radda's purposeful leadership
ADC
ADC,which is led by Mustapha Inuwa, the former Secretary to Katsina State Government, is a gathering of decampees from PDP. The party has been experiencing growing support especially after its recent membership drive. But the decision by INEC not to recognise its national leadership has thrown a serious disorder into the ambitious drive.
Another contentious issue in Katsina ADC is the zone that should produce the next governorship candidate. The jostle is between Daura, Funtua and Katsina zones
Three candidates are presently seeking the ADC governorship slot, namely, Mustapha Inuwa from Katsina Central, Lawal Musa Daura (Ex-DSS boss from Daura), and a former Senator Ahmed Baba Kaita.
KADUNA STATE
As Kaduna inches gradually towards the 2027 electoral cycle, the state's political landscape is undergoing a profound transformation shaped by defections, shifting loyalties, elite calculations and grassroots sentiment.
Far from being a static contest between the ruling party and a predictable opposition, Kaduna today presents a fluid, multi-layered political arena where strength is increasingly defined not just by party labels, but by control of structure, access to power, and the ability to command cross-regional appeal.
A careful assessment of the current dynamics places the major political parties in a clear hierarchy of strength, with the ruling APC firmly in the lead, followed by an emerging ADC positioning itself as a credible alternative, while the PDP, once dominant, appears to be in steep decline.
APC: The party to beat
At the apex of Kaduna's political hierarchy sits the APC, whose dominance is anchored on incumbency, institutional control, and an expanding coalition of political heavyweights across the three senatorial zones.
Governor Uba Sani remains the central pillar of the party's strength. As the incumbent, he enjoys not just constitutional advantage, but also significant influence over party structure, resource allocation, and political patronage. More importantly, his governance style, widely framed around reconciliation, inclusion, and outreach, has helped stabilise previously fractured blocs within the APC.
Unlike the latter years of the Nasir El-Rufai administration, which were marked by intense intra-party conflicts, the current APC leadership has deliberately pursued rapprochement. This has led to the return of estranged figures such as Senator Shehu Sani and Senator Suleiman Uthman Hunkuyi, both of whom now play active roles within the party.
The APC's strength is further reinforced by a wave of high-profile defections. The entry of Senator Sunday Marshall Katung into the party significantly altered the political arithmetic in Southern Kaduna, a region historically resistant to the APC. His defection, alongside immediate past Senator Danjuma La'ah and others from the PDP and smaller parties, signals a growing perception that the APC is not only electorally viable but also the primary gateway to development and federal relevance.
At the federal level, the alignment with President Tinubu strengthens the APC's position further. Federal projects, appointments, and institutional presence in Kaduna, particularly in Southern Kaduna, have become key selling points for the party, reshaping voter sentiment and weakening long-standing opposition narratives of marginalization.
In terms of backers, the APC enjoys the support of state power brokers, federal appointees, business elites benefiting from government patronage, and a growing segment of grassroots actors who are increasingly aligning with the ruling structure. The party's ability to manage internal competition, especially ahead of primaries, will, however, be critical in sustaining its dominance.
ADC: The rising challenger
Emerging as the most potent opposition force in Kaduna is the ADC, a party that, until recently, had minimal electoral footprint in the state. Its sudden rise is tied almost entirely to the influence and political machinery of El-Rufai.
The former governor's defection from APC to ADC fundamentally altered the party's status. With him came a network of loyalists, technocrats, and political operatives who understand the intricacies of Kaduna's electoral map. Unlike traditional opposition figures, El-Rufai brings with him governance experience, name recognition, and a reputation, controversial as it may be, for strategic political execution.
The ADC's backers are largely drawn from disaffected APC elements, technocratic elites from the previous administration, and segments of the political class seeking an alternative platform with credible leadership. Additionally, some PDP figures, weakened by internal crisis, are quietly exploring alignment with the ADC.
The defection of Kaduna Central Senator Lawal Adamu Usman to the ADC further boosts the party's profile, giving it legislative visibility and a foothold in Kaduna Central.
However, ADC's biggest challenge lies in the legal battle of leadership at the national level, and ambition management: with multiple heavyweights reportedly eyeing its gubernatorial ticket, the risk of internal fragmentation is real. Without careful coordination, the same ambition that fuels its growth could also undermine its cohesion.
Nonetheless, ADC remains the most credible threat to the APC, particularly if it resolves its legal tussle of national leadership, as well as succeeds in building a broad coalition that cuts across regional and religious divides, an area where El-Rufai has historically demonstrated capacity.
PDP: From dominance to decline
The PDP, once the undisputed political powerhouse in Kaduna, now finds itself struggling for relevance. Its decline is both structural and psychological, driven by internal crisis, leadership vacuum, and a sustained loss of key figures.
The recent resignation of its 2023 governorship candidate, Isa Mohammed Ashiru, marked a significant blow. His exit, alongside those of Senator Ibrahim Khalid Mustapha and Hon. Suleiman Yahaya Richifa, underscores the depth of the party's internal disarray.
Even before these developments, PDP had been weakened by the earlier defections of key figures, including Senators Katung and Usman. What remains is a fragmented structure struggling to maintain cohesion amid ongoing national-level disputes.
The PDP's traditional backers, grassroots supporters in Southern Kaduna, legacy political families, and sections of the urban electorate, are increasingly drifting away, either toward the APC or the ADC. The perception that the party lacks direction and national coherence has further eroded its appeal.
While the PDP still retains pockets of support, particularly in Kaduna North, its capacity to mount a serious statewide challenge appears limited unless it undergoes a rapid and comprehensive internal reset.
Other parties: peripheral players
Beyond the big three, smaller parties such as LP, NNPP, and PRP remain largely peripheral in Kaduna's political equation. While they occasionally produce strong individual candidates, they lack the structure, funding, and statewide networks required to compete effectively in a governorship race.
Some of their members have already begun migrating toward larger platforms, particularly APC and ADC, reinforcing the trend of political consolidation ahead of 2027.
A two-horse race with a fading third force
As things stand, Kaduna's political contest is shaping into a two-horse race between APC and ADC, with PDP trailing behind as a weakened third force.
APC, backed by incumbency and an expanding coalition, remains the party to beat. Its challenge will be internal, managing ambitions and avoiding post-primary fractures.
The ADC, powered by El-Rufai's influence, is the insurgent force capable of disrupting the status quo, particularly if it successfully manages its leadership feud at the national level and harnesses discontent within both the APC and PDP.
The PDP, unless it resolves its internal crisis and rebuilds its structure, risks sliding further into political irrelevance in a state it once dominated.
Yet, Kaduna's political history cautions against absolute predictions. The state has repeatedly demonstrated a capacity for dramatic electoral shifts. As alignments continue to evolve, one certainty remains: the road to 2027 will be defined not just by party strength, but by strategy, coalition-building, and the ability to read, and shape, the mood of the electorate.
