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A litmus test for APC

By Tayo Williams Those who understand the Yoruba language in-depth know that this is not just about a physical road intersection; it means that for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the

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March 12, 2026byThe Nation
6 min read

By Tayo Williams

Those who understand the Yoruba language in-depth know that this is not just about a physical road intersection; it means that for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the decision of who to support to succeed Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu is a tough one that must be made dispassionately but carefully.

Lagos is not short of eminently qualified governorship materials. As a matter of fact, there is a long list of presumptive candidates across the three senatorial zones. But none of the serious contenders has dared to declare their intention for very obvious reasons.

However, zeroing in on any candidate for the coveted Lagos governorship seat is the singular most important decision the president and the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos State will make.

The debate is on. Some people warning against the selection of ‘technocrat’ for the governorship seat. They feel that if a politician was in the saddle, APC eould moot have lost the 20233 presidential election in Lagos to the Labour Party (LP). It was the first time Tinubu suffered his first-ever electoral loss in Lagos.

It is 10 months to the 2027 general election. Yet, an silence pervades the entire Lagos political landscape. Some of the names that keep coming up in political conversations and permutations are Obafemi Hamzat, deputy governor; Hakeem Muri Okunola, Principal Private Secretary to the President; Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to the President; Dr. Tunji Alausa, the Minister of Education; Senator Tokunbo Abiru, and Mudashiru Obasa, Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly.

Dr. Hamzat came into public office by the grace of his late father, Oba Mufutau Olatunji Hamzat, a Lagos West Senatorial District leader, who was a king in Ogun State before his death in 2019. Besides, having served as commissioner twice and now as a deputy governor in his second term, there are insinuations that he should give others a chance to contribute to Lagos’ development.

Gbajabiamila, a former Speaker of the House of Representative, had been in the Lower Chamber since 2003 before becoming Speaker in 2019 and now the President’s Chief of Staff. The question being asked is whether Gbajabiamila has a broad-based relationship with the rank and file in Lagos politics. He is from Lagos Central, which produced former Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola and Sanwo-Olu.

Dr. Alausa is a successful medical practitioner. He was not aa politician until his appointment as a minister in 2023. When rumours swirled recently that he would be resigning soon to contest for the governorship seat, Dr. Alausa posted on X (formerly known as Twitter), “We’re still hard at work here at the FME (Federal Ministry of Education).  Don’t believe the rumours.”

There is a concerted clamour for the Lagos East Senatorial District to produce the next governor to complete the traditional two-term, considering that former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode did not return for a second term. While Ambode is still relatively popular among Lagosians, many recall that certain factors truncated his second term bid. The question is: would vengeance or vindictiveness not occur if he returns?

Senator Tokunbo Abiru appears like a perfect alternative from the East District. He is a fine gentleman. For him, the race is not a do-or-die.

Another name being bandied around is that of Hakeem Muri-Okunola. Though a thorough ‘Lagos boy’ who only recently moved to Abuja with the president, he has not shown any interest in the seat. Also, he is from Lagos Central, which has ruled Lagos for 16years by the time Sanwo-Olu completes his tenure.

The last time Lagos West produced a governor was Tinubu (1999 – 2007). Since then, the zone has been angling for the seat. The most formidable politician from the zone is Obasa, the longest-serving Speaker in the history of Lagos. Aside from President Tinubu, no singular Lagos politician commands Obasa’s popularity and political bravura. A devout Muslim and experienced legislator, Obasa is the kind of candidate that will be put forward, and the president can go to sleep with two eyes closed.

Being elected six times into the House of Assembly is no mean feat; neither is serving as Speaker for three consecutive terms. It underscores unambiguously that Obasa is a battle-tested political general.

Does the president need to be reminded that his largest number of votes in Lagos in 2023 came from Lagos West, and this was due to Obasa’s influence? Obasa understands the intimate nuances of Lagos’s local politics, and he embodies the state’s spirit of resilience and invincibility.

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As Speaker of Nigeria’s most important state legislature, Obasa has been at the forefront of initiatives and policies to foster the socio-economic prosperity and progress of the state. He has also played a significant role in positioning Lagos as a key player in Nigeria’s economic renaissance. Under him, the law that governs public procurement - Public Procurement Law (2021), which regulates how the state procures goods and services and promotes transparency and accountability in government spending, was made.

There is also the Appropriation Law for resource allocation for various development projects and initiatives, and the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Law that facilitates collaboration between the public and private sectors to deliver projects like roads, power plants, and other essential infrastructure.

To ensure the safety and security of Nigerians and foreigners alike, and boost the confidence of expatriates in coming to live and invest in Lagos, Obasa initiated the Lagos State Neighbourhood Safety Corps (LNSC) to assist and complement the police by providing valuable intelligence for crime prevention and facilitating the arrest of perpetrators of criminal activities in the state.

Also, to address the unemployment ravaging Lagos youths, Obasa fast-tracked the bill to establish the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund (LSETF), whose objectives include facilitating employment opportunities and entrepreneurial development for Lagos residents, particularly focusing on providing access to affordable financing for small businesses, leading to job and wealth creation in the state.

When the coronavirus pandemic broke out in 2020, Speaker Obasa initiated the Emergency Coronavirus Pandemic Bill 2020, which was promptly passed into law to counteract and combat the spread of the virus in the state and allow Governor Sanwo-Olu the legislative concurrence to expend money required to effectively contain the virus and enforce compliance by Lagosians. His achievements as Speaker are indeed legion.

Whilst he has not openly declared an interest in the governorship seat, there is no gainsaying that Speaker Obasa holds the ace as to who can easily win the governorship contest and hit the ground running.

•Tayo Williams is a Lagos-based public affairs analyst.

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