APC, opposition and 2027 battle

With 31 governors from six geo-political zones, an overwhelming majority in the parliament, men of capacity in the federal cabinet, and solid party structures across 774 local governments, the party faces the next general election with much optimism and unrivalled confidence.

The convention offered an opportunity for a reunion of stalwarts; the company of ex-governors, ministers and diplomats, and other notables who rode to political fame on the illustrious platform.

Unlike other parties that are beset by protracted crises, the APC faithful gathered in one accord to take stock and make projections into the future. The party has enlarged its coast between 2022 and this year when it held the last convention, and insiders confided that APC is still targeting two more governors.

Indeed, opposition leaders have a lot to learn from the ruling party. The ward, local government, state, and zonal congresses that preceded the convention were peaceful. Instead of adopting an acrimonious method of leadership selection, APC opted for consensus, following agreements across the six zones. Thus, nearly all the members of the National Working Committee (NWC) retained their positions.

They were not re-elected for any tea party. The National Leader, President Tinubu, intimated to them the challenges ahead. Noting that they were put in positions of responsibility, he charged them to "carry this trust with humility, fairness, and unwavering commitment to our party's ideals".

The President urged the officers to woo more Nigerians into the ruling party. The future of APC, and Nigeria's democracy, he added, depends on their leadership. Therefore, he advised them to "lead with courage, lead with integrity, and lead with vision".

Unlike the APC, the opposition parties appear clearly unfocused on what they want to do except blame the ruling party for everything, including their inability to operate a cohesive internal system. The President, his son, Seyi of the City Boy Movement, the party's leadership and other structures are mobilising ahead of 2027. But ADC and the residue of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are whipping up futile emotions. Makinde's PDP is running from pillar to post, trying to settle for last-minute alignment in critical distress and seeking collaboration with people who were unceremoniously edged out of the platform by the G-5. For now, the Labour Party (LP), conscious of its limitations and contending with intra-party friction, is quiet after resolving the argument over the zoning of the presidential ticket to the South.

Instead of concentrating on the ongoing court cases to halt the recognition of its interim leadership, ADC leaders and rivals in the proposed intra-party shadow presidential poll - former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso - are on the streets protesting.

The foundation of their borrowed party has been faulty from the outset.  While avoiding the hectic labour of establishing a brand new party devoid of an identity crisis, they stormed ADC with influence and huge resources. Those displaced from leadership structures are fighting back, pushing the party into three polarised camps or factions: the disputed and de-recognised interim NWC, led by former Senate President David Mark, the amoebic-committee of Nafiu Gombe, which is neither here nor there, and the interim committee of state chairmen/National Executive Committee (NEC), led by Kogi State Chairman Kingsley Temitope Ogah. They built a false edifice on a porous foundation. Now, it is crumbling. They hijacked a land. Now, another person with the certificate of occupancy is around to eject them. The greatest act of deceit is self-delusion.

There is confusion in the party, making the state chapters now unsure of the validity of congresses, to put them on hold. Yet, time is running out; the end of May is the terminal date for the conclusion of the presidential conventions.

In reality, opposition parties are in turmoil. But the ruling party should also sleep with one eye closed. There are hurdles to cross, and these challenges are imposed by the consequences of nomination politics, which may spark cracks in some state chapters, senatorial districts and constituencies. Although the leadership has laid a veritable example of consensus at the national convention, where party officers were selected through voice vote, there is an increasing resistance to the option, which some members in some states see as systematic imposition of preferred candidates and exclusion of non-caucus members.

Except in states where there are leaders who command the loyalty of a vast majority of party faithful and who can effectively guide the process, consultations and discussions leading to consensus may run into a brick wall.

In states where governors who recently defected are now automatic party leaders, there is a need for the harmonisation of party structures. An equitable sharing formula, rather than extreme domination, is ideal and critical to ensure unity in those chapters.

In others, clashes between governors and senators over nominations should be earnestly tackled by the party's leadership. An example is Ogun State, where former governors who are eyeing the Senate or re-election into the National Assembly are already on a collision course with the governor.

Zoning is also the headache of a number of state chapters, including Kwara, Oyo and Nasarawa, where the opposition is watching out for a slight mistake before striking. Even in Ondo State, where the governorship poll will hold in 2028, rotation is an emotive issue. The governorship slot, having gone round the three senatorial districts of Central, North, and South, the question is: which zone should come first in another round?

The main issue for Oyo APC is whether or not it can zone the governorship ticket out of Ibadan, which comprises 11 populous local governments, under the prevailing circumstances.

Currently, Benue APC is a problem. It is polarised by the feud between the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (DGF), Senator George Akume, and Governor Hyacinth Alia. Both are loyalists of the President. The recent parallel congresses revolved around the two leaders who do not see eye to eye. Their supporters flex muscles daily, and, up to now, reconciliation has not been activated to halt the extreme acrimony. Unless reconciliation is carried out with speed, the crisis may be beyond control during the tense nominations ahead of next year's polls.

To avert an implosion, the party's leadership at all levels needs to mend the little cracks before they widen into unstoppable collapse. As a political family, the ruling APC must also learn from the mistakes of its rivals. The PDP is a case study for any ruling party to learn a lot from. The leadership must be humble enough to accommodate human foibles within and overlook members' errors of omission and commission. It could wield the big stick, where necessary, but only to correct and draw errant members tightly within the fold. There should be no room for prodigal sons who show the traits to sell out or torpedo the sailing ship.

With a familial commitment, the APC will continue to outclass its rivals and retain the centre and most of the sub-national governments. It all depends on how much everyone is ready to sacrifice for the party to continue to sail smoothly.