Atiku gets off on the wrong foot
It is not only in media interviews that former vice president Atiku Abubakar comes up short, even in strategy, as exemplified by his stubborn posturing during the last presidential election,
It is not only in media interviews that former vice president Atiku Abubakar comes up short, even in strategy, as exemplified by his stubborn posturing during the last presidential election, he also comes across as very awkward and too self-satisfied. Speaking on Arise Television last week, he indicated that he would support whoever emerges as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate. He did not say how he could conceivably lose the party's primary. However, should former Anambra State governor Peter Obi throw his hat in the ring, Alhaji Atiku seemed unmoved, suggesting gingerly that he knew the former Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate was having second thoughts. He had been asked pointedly whether he could step down for Mr Obi in particular: “Yes, I will step aside for any winner,” he had said, adding, “Of course, if he is a contender, why not?” Alhaji Atiku is frequently unable to measure his words, exceeding even himself in verbal indiscretion, but he seems to know something other Nigerians don't.
While the storm he raised on Mr Obi's aspiration was yet to subside, he again put his foot in his mouth over the influence ethnicity wields on voting. “Can you tell who is a current leader in the North who has more votes than I have?” he boasted. “Talking of leaders like Tambuwal, Kwankwaso, El-Rufai and also the emerging political leaders, none of them have got that northern vote as much as I've got…Kwankwaso's popularity is restricted to only Kano State. Kano is even now split between him and Governor Abba Yusuf.” But Alhaji Atiku is quick at reversing himself when he goofs. He had to spend the better part of last week trying to mollify Dr Kwankwaso's rage for belittling the latter's role and influence in the eyes of the world. While the former vice president doesn't think much of his rivals for the nomination, and he believes the ADC ticket is his for the asking, he may end up alienating many aspirants and once again dooming his presidential ambition even before it takes off.
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Worse, Alhaji Atiku has once again started to pitch for ethnic bloc voting. By reminding everyone just how well he performed electorally in the North in past polls, particularly outperforming his other northern compatriots, he appears to be sending out two messages: that he would repeat the feat; and that his captive voters should stay in line. His appreciation of the dynamics of core North voting patterns impels him to treat the region, not to say its tendency for extra-judicial enforcement of religious laws, with extra caution and double standard. He has restricted himself to conventional analyses of northern underdevelopment, arguing that poverty and low education figures, much more than elite conspiracy and incompetence, explain insecurity. As he did in the past by waffling over serious issues and misjudging trends, he intends to repeat his methodology. Whether that overused and questionable methodology will fetch him the nomination and win him the election remains to be seen.
What is indisputable, however, is that he will vie for the ADC presidential ticket, win it at all cost, try his best to pacify his co-contenders whatever the cost, and unleash a firestorm of damaging propaganda sourced from every corner of the globe against the All Progressives Congress (APC) standard-bearer. His prognosis of the Nigerian condition will of course remain theoretical, and his principles will be as elastic as he can manage, but he will say nothing alienating and injurious to his northern base. It does not matter whether you insult him for overindulging the old North or you praise him; he will remain immovable and indifferent. His party is already priming for a showdown on the presidential ticket, with many Young Turks spoiling for war. And since many presidential aspirants had migrated to the ADC with a definite, if not inflexible, mental picture of what ticket combination could fetch them the diadem in 2027, Alhaji Atiku will have a herculean task smothering the looming discord in his party. No one in the party or outside believes the buncombe that he would support the party's nominee should someone else win the ticket. He will not. It has to be him or no one else, for as he indicated last week, he believes that the 2027 presidential poll will be his last chance to make history. He will, therefore, go the whole hog, even if it breaks the party or ruins him.
