Jet A1 crisis threatens 2026 Hajj

“Many of the airlines contracted for the 2026 Hajj operations are expected to lease aircraft to meet capacity demands. With the current fuel price increase on both legs, much of their projected profit margin has already been wiped out.

“In some cases, airlines may end up operating at break-even or even at a loss, effectively flying “for free” after covering lease and operational expenses. If urgent action is not taken, some airlines may find it financially impossible to even commence operations from Nigeria or sustain return operations from Saudi Arabia,” he said.

Gamawa stated that although the federal and state governments no longer provide direct subsidies for Hajj operations in Nigeria, stakeholders believe that urgent policy measures, pricing regulation, forex support, or strategic fuel supply arrangements may be necessary to prevent the operation from collapsing.

Gamawa maintained that without swift intervention, coordination, and emergency action from the government, regulators, airlines, and marketers, the 2026 Hajj operation may witness one of the highest fare increase in history or, in the worst-case scenario, operational failure.

He stated:  “In simple terms, the soaring cost of Jet A1 on both the Nigerian and Saudi sides is the clearest reason why Hajj fares are expected to rise sharply in 2026. When Hajj contracts were negotiated and signed, Jet A1 was selling at approximately N1,000 per litre in Nigeria, while the average price on the Saudi side was around $0.68 per litre.

“Airlines structured their fares, logistics, and operational plans around these benchmarks. Today, however, the situation has changed dramatically. Across major departure points such as Abuja, Kano, Lagos, Maiduguri, Yola, Sokoto and Birnin Kebbi, Jet A1 is now being sold for as much as N3,000 per litre, representing a 200% increase from the original price used in contract projections.

“This sharp rise has placed airlines in a difficult financial position. If they are forced to absorb the increased fuel cost, many may be operating at a loss. If pilgrims are made to absorb it, Hajj fares will rise sharply. If government intervenes, it may require emergency support mechanisms despite the removal of Hajj subsidies in Nigeria.”

Gamawa explained that for a single aircraft consuming 70,000 litres of Jet A1 per flight on the NIGexplained, adding that at the contract benchmark of N1,000/litre = N70 million and at N2,500/litre = N175 million.

He further noted: “Additional burden: N105 million per flight. At N2,800/litre: as in Maiduguri, Sokoto, Yola and Kebbi. Fuel cost = N196 million. Additional burden: N126 million per flight. This means the financial strain on airlines remains enormous, with serious implications for the overall cost of the 2026 Hajj operation.

“Even if the Nigerian government or local suppliers stabilize Jet A1 prices for the first leg of the Hajj operation from Nigeria to Jeddah or Medina, the second phase, which is the return flight from Jeddah back to Nigeria, remains a major unresolved challenge.

“The price of Jet A1 on the Saudi side has reportedly risen from around $0.68 per litre at the time the Hajj contract was signed to approximately $1.40 per litre now. That is more than a 105% increase in dollar terms. For airlines, this creates a double burden: Outbound leg: High fuel cost in Nigeria (if not subsidized or discounted). Inbound leg: High fuel cost in Saudi Arabia in U.S. dollars

“Unlike Nigeria, where intervention may come through policy or local refinery arrangements, airlines lifting pilgrims back home from Jeddah must buy fuel at prevailing international market rates in foreign currency.”