‘Kwara’s newly-computed GDP 5th highest in country’
Kwara State Bureau of Statistics (KWABS) has said the state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at N8.3 trillion at current market prices. The new figure came up following the
Kwara State Bureau of Statistics (KWABS) has said the state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at N8.3 trillion at current market prices. The new figure came up following the compilation and computation of the state GDP for the first time since 1967.
The report suggests Kwara ranks behind only Lagos, Rivers, Delta and Akwa Ibom in national standing based on 2022 National Bureau of Statistics data.
In 2024, Kwara State Government announced it was going to compile its own GDP data in collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Before that, the state had been using the United Nations estimates from a 2007 United Nations Development (UNDP) report.
Not only was that template considered to have been outdated, many economists and development enthusiasts also believed it might not entirely reflect the peculiarities of the local economy, which had become nuanced, diverse, multifaceted and expanding.
The state also said the last NBS report that put its GDP at N3.2 trillion, which ranked 19th nationally, didn’t reflect its economic realities.
This informed its decision to join the league of “structured states” with up-to-date GDP compilation covering 2013-2022.
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According to KWABS report, Kwara’s new population is projected at over 4.2 million.
The increasing population propels its economic strength through agriculture, trade and services. Trading, services and state’s fertile agricultural base remains a key driver, with major crops including maize, cassava, rice, sorghum, cocoa, palm oil and groundnuts.
KWABS explained that the 2023 GDP exercise followed internationally-recognised standards, including the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008), Central Product Classification (CPC Version 2), and International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC Rev. 4.0).
It also revealed that two major estimation methods were adopted: Direct (Bottom-Up) Approach and Indirect (Top-Down) Approach. The former entails the collection of primary data from businesses across the state, while the latter involves the use of national data to estimate Kwara’s economic share.
The GDP rebasing exercise will show that Kwara alone accounted for about 4.1 per cent of Nigeria’s economy within that same period under review. The economy was always bigger than it made to be.
With the new correction, Kwara’s economic outlook would be more factual, realistic and positively judged. The state can now plan and attract investment using real data instead of 16-year-old estimates. Many economists believe the tax base matches the actual economic size.
This could not be more captured by the 36 per cent IGR growth recorded between 2023-2024. There are also other economic signals looking positive though. Kwara was ranked 3rd in subnational fiscal performance for 2024 by BudgIT. Also, it is currently projected the 5th least dependent state on federal revenue in Nigeria.
This turnaround is historic. While it may not be said to be all about new growth in the last seven years, it is apt to also argue that we may never get here without the visionary leadership of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, who not only sanctioned the GDP exercise, but followed through with visible reforms and actions to transform Kwara economy. It could not be more puzzling how successive administrations chose to kick the can down the road.
As it had so far done in education, health, Kwara has reasserted its place as a major economic hub in Nigeria--- and things can only get better from here.
