Long gestation: Nigeria’s paradox of development
By Magnus Onyibe From the time a seed crop is planted to the time of harvest is usually a long period. For some crops, it can be between 9–12 months.
By Magnus Onyibe
From the time a seed crop is planted to the time of harvest is usually a long period. For some crops, it can be between 9–12 months. For others, like oil palm, the gestation period can range from 36–48 months or even longer. Development economists often use the term low-hanging fruits to describe policies and programs whose delivery period, from planting to harvesting, is relatively short.
The analogy above reflects the situation in Nigeria, where President Bola Tinubu, since his ascension to the office on May 29, 2023, has embarked on bold and massive reforms in both the economic and political spheres.
Although it is nearly three years into the current administration’s tenure, its far-reaching reforms such as the removal of petrol subsidies to plug wastage, the devaluation of the naira to end arbitrage, the review of colonial-era taxes to expand the tax base, and increases in electricity tariffs have collectively exposed the majority of Nigerians to significant hardship. This has understandably caused widespread dissatisfaction, and the administration ought to be imploring the masses to remain patient.
As humans, we detest pain and try as much as possible to avoid it. However, for growth and development to occur whether for individuals, families, organisations, or society at large, sacrifice is often required.
In Nigeria, this sacrifice involves giving up certain comforts and privileges, such as purchasing cheap fuel and benefiting from subsidised electricity. These subsidies were susceptible to corruption and often benefited well-connected middlemen rather than the masses they were intended to support.
Additionally, reforms in the electricity sector have led to increased costs per unit, further aggravating consumers who are already at their wit’s end.
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In the words of Neale Donald Walsch, author of Conversations with God: “Life begins at the end of your comfort zone.”
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There is no doubt that through the bold and aggressive reform measures introduced since May 29, 2023, Nigerians have been pushed out of their comfort zones. A critical mass of the population is struggling to stay afloat, akin to swimming against a strong tide.
The reforms initially triggered hardship, with inflation rising to about 34%, petrol prices increasing to around N1,300 per litre, transportation costs soaring, and the naira depreciating to about N1,800 to $1 at one point. These factors created severe discomfort for the masses.
However, there are indications that some benefits are beginning to emerge, as inflation and exchange rates have stabilised somewhat, and petrol prices have shown periods of moderation. This has slightly eased the hardships faced by Nigerians. Nonetheless, external shocks such as geopolitical tensions have caused renewed pressure, with petrol prices rising again.
On a positive note, funds saved from subsidy removal and currency reforms are being redirected into poverty alleviation initiatives. These include direct cash transfers to vulnerable populations and investments in education through the National Education Loan Fund (NELFUND).
Contrary to expectations that such funds might be mismanaged, these initiatives have enabled academically gifted but indigent students to access university education, thereby enhancing the nation’s human capital and productivity.
Additionally, a significant portion of these funds has been allocated to subnational governments, which are investing in infrastructure such as roads, bridges, hospitals, and schools which are critical inputs for economic growth.
In the political sphere, the Supreme Court ruling mandating direct allocation of funds to Local Government Areas (LGAs) represents a significant reform. When fully implemented, this policy could transform the 774 LGAs into viable economic hubs, reversing the previous concentration of resources in state capitals and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. This may also help reduce rural–urban migration.
These developments reflect positive outcomes of the current administration’s reforms.
However, as Laozi (Lao Tzu), the Chinese philosopher and founder of Taoism, noted: “Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. He who resists change is lost.”
Although Nigerians appear to have accepted the changes inherent in these reforms, a major concern remains: the benefits have not sufficiently trickled down to the grassroots. This has created a disconnect between the masses and the ruling class. This situation represents a paradox of development. Despite improvements in macroeconomic indicators—such as GDP at approximately $334 billion, foreign reserves around $50 billion, and economic growth rates between 4.1% and 4.4% with inflation rate down to around 15.6% which is not the lived experiences of the majority remain challenging.
Economists describe this as “jobless growth with persistent poverty” which is growth that does not translate into improved living standards. This phenomenon is often associated with unequal wealth distribution, limited job creation, and weak social safety nets.
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While the current administration appears to be addressing some of these structural issues, the efforts remain insufficient.
Although large-scale poverty reduction, similar to China’s experience, has yet to occur, possibly due to the long gestation period of such reforms, there is a need for public enlightenment and encouragement by the incumbent administration. At the same time, the government must intensify efforts to alleviate current hardships.
In light of the above, it is imperative that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) begins to actualise its Renewed Hope Agenda by restoring confidence among Nigerians through clear communication of policies and tangible improvements in living conditions.
Beyond GDP, another important measure of development is the Human Development Index (HDI), which assesses well-being through: Life expectancy (health and longevity); education (access to knowledge); Gross National Income (GNI) per capita (standard of living). Experts argue that HDI provides a more comprehensive picture of development by highlighting disparities in human well-being.
Nigeria’s HDI is approximately 0.560, ranking 29th in Africa and placing it in the medium human development category. Although this reflects a 22% improvement over 19 years, it remains relatively low.
Regional disparities are also evident: Southeast, 0.672 (highest), Southwest, 0.621 (boosted by Lagos), South-south: 0.615, North-central, 0.588, Northeast: 0.468 and Northwest: 0.426 (lowest).
While the Southwest’s performance is driven by Lagos, the Northeast and Northwest lag due to insecurity, low literacy, and economic challenges.
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The positive aspect is that reforms can be likened to awakening a lion. If sustained, their benefits may become more evident before the 2027 elections. However, political competition remains, with opposition parties such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) yet to present compelling alternatives or demonstrate strong voter mobilisation capacity.
Meanwhile, the APC must not become complacent. It must clearly articulate its policies and ensure effective communication to avoid misrepresentation of facts by its political opponents and resulting in voter misunderstanding of the administration’s policies and program.
In conclusion, l would like to use the evolution of Nigeria in international football to illustrate how challenging the wait for the manifestation of the benefits of a new policy/ program or reform can be.
As may be recalled, the period between when Coach Tiko first enlisted Nigerian footballers into European football clubs to hone their skills (Segun Odegbami, 1970-1972) to the time that Nigeria won the Olympic gold medal in football in Atlanta, USA in 1996 after another coach Otto Gloria put more local footballers through additional international exposure in Europe, was over a decade. Prior to clinching the gold medal at the Atlanta Olympics, some Nigerians in ignorance had been criticizing both coaches Tiko and Otto Gloria for ‘selling ‘ Nigerian players to foreign clubs. But it was not until the benefits started manifesting that the critics, in retrospect, realized that the initiative of sending Nigerian players to Europe was indeed a great idea.
So, a long gestation period for radical reforms to attain full circle such as the one Tinubu is implementing is, by nature, usually a long process and involves an extended passage of time.
President Tinubu’s ongoing bold reform initiatives in the bid to reset Nigeria is likely to follow a similar pattern that sending Nigerian footballers to Europe to ply their trade in football was initially resisted, and the co-initiators of the move, who were earlier condemned, later became heroes.
If Nigerians can continue to make the sacrifice of coping well with the current hardship triggered by the broad economic and socio-political reforms, respite may come sooner than later when the reforms would have come full circle and start yielding the desired benefits.
•Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos.
