Month of decision
As candidates for next year’s elections emerge from primaries this month, the stage is being set for the epic battle for power among registered political parties. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU
As candidates for next year’s elections emerge from primaries this month, the stage is being set for the epic battle for power among registered political parties. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the politics of nominations, alliance shifts, the race to meet the umpire’s deadlines and preparations for political campaigns.
Across the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), politicking seems to have displaced governance.
Alignment and realignments, conflicts over consensus and direct primaries, endorsement and counter-endorsements, scamble for nominations, clash of ambitions, agitations for automatic tickets for women, protests arising from intra-party guidelines, and litigations tend to unleash tension on the polity.
The focus of the political class now is next year’s general election. It is a year-long process, begining from March to March next year. It started much earlier. After the inauguration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on May 29, 2023, opposition politicians have began the spade work for 2027, thereby reducing the gap between the last elections and the proposed polls.
At alert are the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary. While the umpire is supervising the various pre-election activities and enforcing compliance with the Electoral Act, the courts also intervene to regulate political relationships in an obviously tensed environment.
This month is critical to the entire processes. The time frame set by the electoral commission for the submission of party membership registers will elapse on May 10. Parties are racing to meet the deadline. According to INEC, parties are expected to comply not later than 21 days before their respective primaries. The primaries are scheduled for between April 23 and May 30, 2026.
Of the 21 political parties, only the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has submitted its register.
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The electoral agency is simultaneously preparing for three rounds of election. First is the senatorial by-election holding on June 20 in Nasarawa, Ondo, Rivers and Enugu states, and House of Representatives and Assembly elections in few states as well to fill the vacancies created by the resignation and demise of federal lawmakers.
On the same day, the off-cycle governorship elections will be conducted in Ekiti State. The Ekiti poll preceeds the Osun election holding in August. Campaigns have been flagged off in Ekiti. Candidates in Osun are intensifying consultations and mobilisation.
The implication of the by-election is that parties are simultaneously preparing for their primaries along with the primaries for the choice of 2027 candidates.
Back to 2023 configuration
After almost a year of fruitless search for a common ground, the proposed coalition finally collapsed last Sunday. It collapsed, barely a week after the Opposition Summit at Ibadan, Oyo State capital, where its leaders were said to have agreed on a consensus presidential candidate. It fell flat due to ambition, lack of sacrifice and hypocritical commitment.
The idea had rested on a porous foundation, without a unifying set of ideas and value beyond the collective hate towards the president by opposition leaders battling with injured egos.
Former Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate Peter Obi, who had joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC), dumped the party for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (ADC), led by a defector from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Seriake Dickson.
He took along with him the Kwankwasiyya leader, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, who had dumped his previous party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), for ADC. Both were not ready to build ADC, but looking for a platform to contest for president, as pointed out by the ADC Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi.
They left the party, having seen the handwriting on the wall. The motive for rebranding ADC as a coalition is to secure a platform for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to contest for president.
The rise of NDC
Following their exit, Nigeria now looks forward to a presidential poll involving four political parties - APC, ADC, NDC and to an extent, PDP. The contest would therefore, mirrow the 2023 configuration whereby APC, PDP, LP and NNPP were involved in the race.
Consistent with their antecedents, veteran party borrowers - Obi and Kwankwaso - and other partyless politicians from the collapsing PDP edifice are seeking refuge in NDC, not with an intention to build, rebuild or nurture, but for the limited purpose of 2027 elections.
It is also debasing the value of opposition that none of the rival parties has been able to canvase better alternative programmes.
Makinde’s next move
Political watchers are beaming the searchlight on Oyo, where Governor Seyi Makinde is still undecided about any course of action.
Would be join ADC to bid for the vice presidential ticket, despite working against Atiku in 2023 as a member of G5? Would he defect to the NDC and pick a senatorial form? Is Makinde likely to team up with Bauchi Governor Bala Mohammed in APM?
Primaries
Since last year, the presidential primary of APC was half-done. Although a chieftain from Edo State, Stanley Osifo, has obtained nomination form, the party will field President Tinubu for re-election.
Also, ADC will present Atiku to Nigerians while NDC is expected to field Obi, with Kwankwaso as running mate. The primaries will hold this month, according to the INEC guidelines.
While the presidential primaries may be devoid of further controversies, the shadow polls for choosing candidates for other layers of election may not be smooth in some states. Party chapters in these states are already in turmoil over consensus and direct primaries.
Already, consensus has worked in Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Nasarawa, Niger, Benue, Borno, Plateau, Kano, Zamfara, Yobe, Akwa Ibom, Taraba, Gombe and Kaduna where APC had successfully chosen governorship candidates.
But there are hues and cries in Oyo, Rivers, Bauchi, Ebonyi, Adamawa and Abia where party leaders are still brainstorming. In these states, opposition parties are just settling down after protracted litigations to prepare for the primaries.
There are fears that unresolved crisis arising from improperly organised shadow polls may trigger post-primary crisis that may make disatisfied chieftains to work against their parties from within.
To avert that logjam, parties should put in place reconciliation mechanisms for timely resolution of conflicts.
Primary timetables
APC has fixed its presidential primary for May 23. Screening of aspirants is between May 6 and 12.
The House of Representatives primaries are scheduled for May 15, Senate for May 18, House of Assembly for May 20, and governorship for May 21.
ADC has scheduled its primary for between May 21 and 25, 2026, with the presidential primary taking place on May 25. It has also scheduled a special convention for May 27 for the ratification of the candidates. Also, the party has set screening for between May 14 and 15.
LP has scheduled its presidential primary for May 23. Only aspirants from the South are eligible, according to the party guidelines. Governorship and state assembly primaries are set for May 27 while National Assembly primaries are slated for May 29.
The Social Democratic Party (SDP) would hold its national convention on May 9.
Also, the Youth Party has scheduled its national convention for May 23.
The dates, however, are not sacrosant. For example, APC has extented the sale of nomination forms twice.
Litigations
Apart from APC, the opposition parties are enmeshed in protracted litigations.
Although the Supreme Court vacated the status quo ante bellum order of the Appeal Court, it did not make a pronouncement recognising General David Mark as national chairman. The apex court ordered the divided party chieftains to return to the Federal High Court for the trial of the substantive case on the leadership squable between Mark and Nafiu Bala Gombe.
Gombe, a former National Vice Chairman, argued that the dissolution of the previous National Working Committee (NWC) led by Ralph Nwosu and the installation of Mark as interim chairman in July 2025 were illegal. He filed a suit at the Federal High Court to stop the Mark-led committee from acting. He prayed that he should be declared the legitimate chairman. While Mark-led leadership was reinstated, the lawsuit on the legality of the leadership change is pending at the Federal High Court.
Unless Gombe is prevailed upon to withdraw the suit or its outcome is favourable to the Mark camp, the ADC may be sitting on a keg of gunpowder.
Resurgence of crisis in PDP
In PDP, the protracted crisis has not abated. Although the Supreme Court nullified the controversial national convention held at Ibadan the Publicity Secretary of the Turaki group said the judgment left the party without any leadership.
The Wike group, led by National Chairman Abdulrahman Mohammed, is forging ahead with preparations for primaries. It enjoys INEC recognition. But the Board of Trustees Chairman has disagreed and struggling to fill what it has described as leadership vacuum, following the nullification of the Kabiru Turaki-led National Working Committee (NWC). The Wike group has tried to dissolve the Wabara-led BoT, which it accused of losing “moral authority” and failing to act as a stabilising force.
There are conflicting interpretations of the Supreme Court judgment. The two groups differ on the consequences of the judicial rulings. While Wabara insists that all prior leadership structures are gone, the Wike group is defending the new NWC led by Mohammed. As BoT chairman, Wabara has to set up a new caretaker committee to organize a fresh convention. Wike group believes this is illegal.
According to analysts, the crisis can only be settled in court.
