Oil exports: Nigeria, others to benefit from rising crude oil prices, says IMF
By Collins Nweze, Assistant Editor The International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the weekend, predicted significant recovery in Nigeria’s Balance of Payment (BoP) following ongoing surge in crude oil prices. In
By Collins Nweze, Assistant Editor
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the weekend, predicted significant recovery in Nigeria’s Balance of Payment (BoP) following ongoing surge in crude oil prices.
In an interview transcript with Director of the Communications Department at the IMF, Ms. Julie Kozack released at the weekend, she said oil exporters may witness improvement in balance of payments because of higher oil prices.
She said: “For countries that are energy importers, they may face again if the conflict is prolonged, they may face pressures on their balance of payments. For countries that are oil exporters, their balance of payments may improve because of higher prices. So, we may see a differential effect there. Changes to global financial conditions are likely to affect all countries”.
Nigeria earns over 90 per cent of its forex from crude oil exports, and with Brent Crude trading above $112, Nigeria’s earnings through crude oil export is bound to rise. Murban crude, also hit $145 and sped past it, reflecting the continued freeze of most tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over Middle East crisis.
Kozack said the oil prices rally has impacted equity markets, and led to surge in bond spreads.
“We have engaged with finance ministers and Central Bank governors in many countries and regions. We’ve also engaged with regional institutions to discuss and share perspectives on the implications of the conflict and again, how the Fund can best provide support,” she said.
Continuing, Kozack said that countries are most interested in what IMF assessment on the global economy, regional economies, and their individual countries.
“Our Managing Director has said recently that in an uncertain world, we do see more countries often turning to the Fund for support. We stand ready to provide that support as needed. Right now, we have not received any formal requests for emergency financing. But of course, as I said, as the situation evolves, as countries reassess their financing needs and their policy options, we stand ready to support them using all of the tools that are available to us,” she said.
According to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data, Nigeria’s external sector faced significant headwinds in 2025, as the BoP surplus plummeted by 38.1 per cent to $4.23 billion, down from the $6.83 billion recorded in 2024.
Provisional data from the CBN showed a complex economic landscape where a sharp decline in crude oil earnings and a massive retreat in foreign portfolio investments outweighed the gains made in gas exports and the emergence of the Dangote Refinery as a major exporter of refined petroleum products.
The Current Account, which represents the net of Nigeria’s trade in goods and services, remained in surplus but saw a significant contraction. The surplus fell by 26.2 per cent to $14.04 billion in 2025, compared to $19.03 billion in the previous year.
The decline was led by 14.4 per cent drop in crude oil exports, which fell to $31.54 billion from $36.85 billion in 2024. This shortfall in oil revenue occurred despite a 21.4 per cent surge in gas exports, which climbed to $10.51 billion.
Furthermore, the Goods Account, a subset of the current account, recorded a higher surplus of $14.51 billion. This was bolstered by the Dangote Refinery, which contributed $6.13 billion in refined petroleum exports and helped slash fuel imports by 28.9 per cent, from $14.06 billion to $10.00 billion.
Also Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows saw a robust increase of 149.1 per cent, rising to $4.01 billion from $1.61 billion in 2024, indicating long-term investors showed renewed confidence in the Nigerian economy, particularly in equity and reinvested earnings.
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The pressure on the BoP was further compounded by rising out-payments in the services and primary income accounts. The deficit in the services account grew to $14.58 billion, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, and insurance.
More strikingly, net out-payments in the primary income account surged by 60.9 per cent to $9.09 billion. The CBN attributed this to a spike in dividends and interest payments to non-resident investors, particularly those with portfolio and direct investments in the country.
Despite the narrowing BoP surplus, Nigeria’s external reserves recorded a healthy accretion of 13.8 per cent, ending 2025 at $45.75 billion. This growth in reserves provides a critical buffer for the economy as it navigates the structural shifts in its trade and investment balances.
