Scholar: reflective counter-terrorism will tackle insecurity

United States Political Science scholar at University of Alabama,  Olawale Ayansola, has suggested a radical shift in the defence strategy to battle insecurity.

In an analysis: “The Case for Reflective Approach for Nigeria’s Counter-Terrorism”, Ayansola said the reliance on foreign intervention and sporadic military force is not achieving expected outcome.

He noted that like many post-colonial states, Nigeria is weighed down by a complex security conundrum that left its military overstretched and its borders constantly tested.

‘’At the forefront of national discourse is the tension between kinetic military force and non-kinetic social measures. ‘’Nigeria employs a hybrid strategy—a “fire-for-fire” approach on the front lines juxtaposed with integration of “repentant” terrorists and intermittent calls for amnesty.

‘’Yet, despite this strategy, the security landscape is volatile. He observes that this inconsistency often sends mixed signals to the citizenry and insurgents, failing to establish a definitive deterrent or peace.

‘’The limitations of foreign intervention were made clear following U.S. strikes on a terrorist enclave in Sokoto.

‘’While many hoped a “messiah” had arrived, priorities shifted just five months later as U.S. became preoccupied with escalating tensions with Iran.

This has returned Nigeria’s security needs to the “back seat” of international diplomacy, making credibility of security alliances between developing states and U.S. questionable. He described this as a classic security dilemma of “abandonment or entrapment” in the post-9/11 era.

The lesson, Ayansola argues, is that no foreign saviour is coming to transform Nigeria into a safe haven; the nation must instead adopt “Reflective Counter-Terrorism” tactics.

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‘’These are strategies that are adaptive, self-aware, and evidence-based—continuously evolving to meet a shifting threat landscape while strictly respecting human rights and the rule of law.  ‘’

The scholar warns that the stakes could not be higher, as the insurgency is steadily migrating toward the South-West. With recent incursions into Kwara, he cautions that the entire region now sits in the crosshairs of an unchecked crisis.

To implement this reflective approach, Ayansola insists that state policing is no longer a political luxury but a security mandate.

Ayansola called for an expedited framework that avoids the pitfalls of the past, ensuring that officers are not diverted to VIP protection but are instead focused on decentralized intelligence gathering.

‘’By leveraging local knowledge, these forces can identify and neutralize threats before they manifest, effectively reclaiming the grassroots from insurgent influence, he added.

Crucially, the scholar identifies kidnapping as the “venture capital” of the terrorist economy, noting that billions in ransom are recycled into arms procurement.

To dismantle this, he proposes the creation of specialized, elite anti-kidnapping task forces.

 Acknowledging the role of technology, Ayansola warns against a “cycle of continuous dependence” on expensive foreign surveillance tools.

Instead, he recommends the training and integration of local hunters to reinforce their native intelligence, providing a sustainable way to decimate terrorist networks using those who know the terrain best.

Ultimately, Ayansola said that every forest, borderland, and rural corridor must be brought under the digital or physical watch of the state to eliminate “ungoverned spaces.”

The festering of these security gaps remains the single greatest threat to Nigeria’s survival. By prioritizing local intelligence over foreign hope and systemic reform over sporadic force, the nation can finally begin to bridge the gap between persistent insecurity and sustainable peace, Ayansola said.