The nuanced but sinister plot against President Tinubu will fail
For a multiplicity of reasons the Nigerian presidency under Bola Ahmed Tinubu has, since May 29, 2023, become the focal point of a political struggle that is less about conventional
For a multiplicity of reasons the Nigerian presidency under Bola Ahmed Tinubu has, since May 29, 2023, become the focal point of a political struggle that is less about conventional opposition but more of a layered, multi-front contest for the direction of the country. The plot is not a single conspiracy but the convergence of some disparate interests — political, economic, ethnic, even, international whose motives and overall objective is to strangulate, that is, weaken or delegitimise, his mandate.
But as indicated in the caption, the plot will fail because, apart from the fact that Tinubu is doing his best, given the circumstances in which he met the country, nothing, beside bile, unites his enemies who are only interested in self.
They are so disunited , they do not operate as a monolithic group or as a one-party rebellion.
Rather, they operate on, at least, four different levels, as indicated below:
The elite economic pushback group whose corrupt economic backbone the President broke through his two signature reforms, i.e fuel subsidy removal and FX unification as they clinically dismantled rent-seeking and arbitrage on which they have fed fat under the ethnically - dominated NNPC and Emefiele's CBN, respectively.
Subsidy alone is believed to have gulped over ₦10 trillion between 2010-2022 with a substantial part of it lost to inflated claims. Unification of the exchange rate immediately closed the arbitrage window such that it is now almost impossible for any one single operator in the Nigerian banking sector to own over 100 properties in the U.S, U.K or the UAE.
The backlash was predictable. Those displaced immediately transmogrified into anti - state elements, funding all manner of narratives, bankrolling litigation, sponsoring labour unrest, especially in those unions whose leadership is dominated by a particular ethnic group.
They exploit every conceivable issue to go against the government, intent on de - marketing the Tinubu administration.
That is how losers on the economic front suddenly rebrand themselves as defenders of the masses, spewing inanities on some TV networks.
Another is the Regional Lobby group. President Tinubu's emergence in 2023 disrupted the expectations of some power blocs. For instance, surprisingly after President Muhammadu Buhari had just completed eight years, Atiku Abubakar, another Northerner, emerged the candidate of the PDP while a lobby within the ruling party, APC was aggressively rooting for a Northerner as President Buhari's successor as if Southerners are serfs. In the same South there was no end to which some people did not exploit religion and ethnicity just to be President.
None of these losers has spared the Tinubu administration since.
They attempt, at all times,to ethnically reframe government policies; a good example being the Tax reform Law which some see as anti-North.
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Only this past week, the 'ADC Vanguard' accused President Tinubu of offending the North by "decentralizing strategic federal institutions that were historically concentrated in Northern Nigeria".
It is beyond them to see beyond their noses.
They even weaponise insecurity to question Tinubu's competence as commander-in-chief in a classical manner of blaming the victim: the North, the very source of insecurity in the country, which has done the least, if anything at all, to help in curbing the menace, pointing accusing fingers at the head of the fight against the menace, instead of apologising to traumatised Nigerians for what their kith and kin, domestic as well as imported, are doing to an, otherwise, decent country.
It can't get more baffling.
The intendment of these politicians is to fracture Tinubu's coalition by peeling away Northerners - the people, even APC governors, legislators, as well as Northern religious institutions. That is why a Buba Galadima, who cannot win a councillorship election or a Dino Melaye, beaten blue and black as a gubernatorial candidate, could both claim that even a corpse would defeat President Tinubu in an election.
There has also been a legal dimension - offensive really - to the plot.
In the first place, the post-election litigation against Tinubu had been unusually aggressive, extending from citizenship to academic records to forfeiture cases from the 1990s etc.
While legal challenge is constitutional, the pattern was akin to using the courts to achieve what the ballot did not. When that failed at the Supreme Court, the theatre shifted to legitimacy protests, diaspora petitions, and attempts to influence foreign governments to censure Nigeria.
As late as only last week(20.04.26) a gentleman, Prince Peter Odor, sent me a text message from God knows where (Tel no:
+234810-038-49) claiming, among other things, that Peter Obi won the 2023 Presidential election.
Let's hear him: "Rivers 2023: Forensic Audit Reveals Obi Won:
1) No man ever won the elections at All or Most of the Significant places and the FCT, but did not win overall election
2) Obi behaved like a FooL for Relying on court to give him victory as court did before. But election, court and judges differ
3) He should have started a Revolt. He did not
4) His legal team was Stupid for not prosecuting Yakubu over "Glitches", separately".
I could only reply him by suggesting that, like Ojukwu, Obi should have, indeed, started a war.
This is the way they think, using democratic institutions to undermine democratic outcomes.
But we must continue to watch them wallow in their ignorance.
As we saw a faction of ADC did last week demonstrating in the U. K over the INEC interpretation of a Court of Appeal decision in their leadership tussle, they are, forever, seeking to export Nigeria's domestic issues in order to invite external pressure on a sovereign country- very funny but sinister people.
Finally, in their armoury is the Information War.
They contest every positive economic data, no matter where from - the World Bank, IMF wherever. True,
inflation was real and biting at 33% mid-2024, but today it's come down to about 16% but they are still parroting their preferred higher figures.
They are completely blind to things like the global grain shocks, post-Covid supply chain challenges, as well as the cost of decades of subsidy distortion, not to mention the US/Israel - Iran war.
Every kidnapping is framed as state collapse. Every policy reversal is, for them, negative and a result of cluelessness rather than an adjustment.
They are loud on Social media where, am told, Obidients predominate, mouthing inanities like the one quoted above about 'president Obi', even almost 3 years after his defeat.
Amongst their ready tools are: AI-generated videos, cloned voices, out-of-context clips etc, all of which they know circulate faster than any rebuttals.
They do not aim at winning a debate; no, they just want to exhaust the public, create apathy, and depress the political capital President Tinubu needs to govern through all his painful but, absolutely necessary reforms, if Nigeria were not to become another Venezuela.
They are also reacting to the threats President Tinubu represents, in particular, the end of business as usual.
For decades, government has subsidised consumption instead of production. Cheap petrol, pegged dollars, and waivers had created billionaires without factories. Tinubu's market reforms signal a shift from a rentier economy to a productive one and those who profited from the old order see his success as their own failure.
Tinubu is the first Nigerian president with no less than 30-years of personal political networking,
spanning all the six geopolitical zones. Therefore, from governors to legislators to ward leaders, the Tinubu coalition is deep, very deep.
Good old days, his house on Bourdillon was always like a motor park with cars from all over the country bearing politicians from everywhere , North and South, all seeking one favour or the other.
Opponents now fear that if he stabilises the economy by 2027, that machine will become unassailable for a very long time, as in Lagos state where, in 27 years, no opposition party has smelt government.
He is repositioning Nigeria in ECOWAS and beyond. His push for a stronger G-20 voice for Africa positively impacted Nigeria's external posture.
For foreign actors who prefer a weaker, distracted Nigeria, a reforming, assertive Nigeria is a problem. For domestic actors who leverage on foreign NGOs and embassies, as counterweights to the state, a President who speaks for Africa is a threat.
But as sure as the day follows the night, Tinubu's enemies will fail.
Let us examine why.
To say they will fail is an assessment based on the tough constraints confronting the disparate opposition, the most daunting being the absence of unity.
As of today, they are extremely fractured and even as units, they are so disjointed, factions predominate.
PDP is dealing with defections and leadership tussles, Labour party's 2023 momentum is now history as it never translated into state-level structures. You could count their elected representatives, at any level, on your finger tips. The one state NNPP is now completely atomised.
And no one single aspirant today, within the opposition, commands the national spread, or the war chest, any party would need to defeat an incumbent president in Nigeria.
The APC succeeded in 2015 because many opposition parties merged and conceded to a single candidate over a year before the election. That possibility no longer exists.
There is also the incumbency factor, and even though the opposition can point to negativities like the high cost of living, insecurity etc,all these willllll improve over time.
Subsidy removal and FX unification triggered inflation earlier on, but Nigerians are beginning to see changes.
L.States now receive FAAC allocations 60-70% higher than pre-2023. The FG's revenue-to-GDP ratio is increasing and debt servicing ratio is down to 50 per cent from the over 90% of the pre - Tinubu years.
The Dangote Refinery is beginning to cut import bills. If, by late 2026, food inflation slows and transport costs stabilise owing to increased use of CNG, President Tinubu will be able to justifiably claim on the campaigns that, he took the hard road and it worked. And, by the way, no opposition plot can survive or trample positive results.
Unless APC implodes, and I cant see how or why, the opposition hasn't a chance in a million, of defeating President Tinubu in 2027.
At the election, voters will not judge Tinubu on June 2023 fuel queues. They will judge him on 2026 food prices, jobs, and security. Even if only two of these improve significantly , the plot's narratives will lose oxygen and asphyxiate.
However, a word of caution: the Tinubu government must guide against policy missteps. Everything must be done to ease peoples' pains, now aggravated by the needless Trump war against Iran. There must be verifiable cushioning — cash transfers, food logistics, student loans etc or the public may conclude that the pain is permanent. Government must be alert and guide against deliberate sabotage like sponsored insecurity, especially by aggrieved politicians whose ranks have swollen phenomenally, lately.
It must also check complacency.
APC must govern and campaign simultaneously.
Concluding, if President Tinubu delivers measurable relief between now and 2027, all the variagated plots - economic, ethnic or religious etc will become mere footnotes of history. On current trajectory, I see him coasting to victory because Nigeria's presidential politics is not won by conspiracy but by coalition, capital and organisational ability, none of which Tinubu lacks.
