Trump’s war and Nigeria

The two collaborators, especially America, appears torn between waging a destructive war against Iran that could turn the people against the interveners, or just do enough to get in motion, a local upheaval that could topple the nearly 50 years’ regime of the Islamic revolution of 1979. On their part, young Iranians, who were out in the streets for several weeks, not long ago, appears too dazed by the quick turn of events, starting with the killing of their country’s supreme leader. They may also be weary, knowing that it is not the best of time to organize any form of protest, against a regime that is massively bleeding.

But with Israel and America dominating the war through bombardments from its armada of air and naval fleets, the Iranians cannot wait to engage their enemies in a ground battle. Should they succeed in drawing them into one-on-one combat, there may be a reversal in perception of the contest, as the reverberating effect of the death of one American in battle could equate to a hundred Iranians. So, while the Israelis and the Americans will do everything they can to resist engaging in ground battle with the Iranians; on their part, the Iranians would apply all the resistance they can, to keep the war going long enough, for a ground battle.

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Considering the economic implications of a prolonged war for the combatants and the rest of the world, and the need to bring the battle to an early end, the temptation for the decisive ground battle, would grow as the days go by. The immediate impact as seen across the world, and in our country, is the sharp increase in the price of petrol or gasoline as Americans call it. With the price of fuel up from around N837 to N1050 in a matter of few days, in Lagos, and higher in other parts of the country, the economic gains of the past few months, under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, may be in jeopardy.

Of course, the likely immediate impact will be inflationary pressure on goods and services across the country. Since about the second quarter of last year, inflationary pressure had slowed down. From about 24.23%, in March 2025, the downward movement had been on to 15.10%, in January. Many pundits have attributed the downward movement of inflation, to the stabilization of the Naira, at around N1350 to $1, for a long time. Coupled with the peace made between the petroleum industry regulator, the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), and the Dangote Refinery, Nigerians have enjoyed some form of stability in the price of petrol at around N830, in Lagos, for some months.    

But all that stability appears to be jeopardy if the Trump war drags on for some few more weeks. The relative stability in the last one year in the price of staples like bread, rice, garri, and groceries, which Nigerians have enjoyed, may fly off the windows, the same way, the price of petrol appears to be headed. Should that happen, the agitation for wage increase would become stringent, and the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and its affiliates, would not hesitate to march on the streets. PENGASSAN and its affiliate unions, which are unhappy with the Executive Order 9, may see potential labour protest as an opportunity to take its pound of flesh. 

Small businesses, which rely on private sources of electricity, and which have been trying to rebound since the stabilization of the prices of petrol and the naira would be negatively impacted. Those hanging precariously on the border line may be swept away by the resurgence of inflationary pressure that would follow a prolonged war in the Middle East. Families, whose income have been struggling to adjust to the recent stability, would enter into an era of turmoil, should food inflation start another round of geometric progression, as witnessed in 2023/2024.

Some have argued that with the barrel of crude skyrocketing, the nation stands to gain from the crisis. They note that while the 2026 budget, is based on crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, the current price is already trading above $105 per barrel. While the new dynamics would place more monies in the hands of the government, it would pauperize the people, who are the real engine for economic growth. Should general economic activities stagnate or spiral uncontrollably, due to a sudden inflationary pressure, the more money available to government would not make life easier for the people.

With election around the corner, the temptation for governments at various levels would be to resort to sharing of monetary largesse, to appease their supporters and potential voters. The direct impact on the election may be the temptation to engage in vote buying, to win. The massive increase in the inflow of money, as politicians release monies to their party men to prepare for the election would further impact inflation. Monetary supply which ordinarily goes up in an election year would further skyrocket, and the economy may suffer stagflation.

Sadly, those outside the loop of easy money during an election year, and who constitute the majority of Nigerian citizens, would bear the economic brunt of any prolonged Trump war. No doubt, this administration’s economic reflexes would be tested as the Trump war drags.