US-Israel attack on Iran: Implications for Africa

The global military expenditure each year runs into trillions of dollars. Redirect even a fraction of that toward infrastructure, sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, education, and job creation — and the chronic crises of poverty and instability could be dramatically reduced. Wars are often justified as necessary for security. Yet true security comes from stability, opportunity, and dignity.

Are we saying these wars inevitable? Some argue that conflict is unavoidable — that geopolitics, ideology, and security dilemmas leave nations no choice. There is also a theological dimension for many observers. The Holy Bible contains prophecies of wars and rumours of wars in the last days. From that perspective, ongoing upheaval could be seen as fulfilment rather than contradiction. But prophecy does not excuse participation. The existence of predicted conflict does not morally justify escalation. If anything, it should inspire restraint, humility, and urgency for peace.

The illusion of military solutions is gibberish. History repeatedly shows that overwhelming firepower rarely delivers lasting peace. It may achieve temporary deterrence, strategic advantage, or regime containment. But sustainable peace almost always arrives not through bombardment — but through negotiation. Roundtables have ended wars that battlefields could not, dialogue after decades of cold hostility, peace accords after generations of bloodshed, and compromises once thought politically impossible. Even amid missiles and mobilizations, negotiations inevitably re-emerge. They always do. Because war exhausts economies. It fractures societies. It drains treasuries. And it breaks hearts.

The greatest tragedy is not only the loss of life or money — it is the normalization of it. When billion-dollar military expenditures become routine headlines, humanity risks moral numbness. Imagine if $779 million in one day funded affordable housing projects, $2.3 billion strengthened food security and job creation, $200 million per day revitalized infrastructure and education. These investments would not merely relieve suffering; they would reduce the very instability that fuels conflict.

Despite the devastation, history also offers cautious hope. No war has lasted forever. Even the fiercest adversaries eventually sit down. Diplomacy is delayed — but rarely denied indefinitely. In the end, compromise is not weakness. It is civilization.

If humanity is to evolve beyond repeating cycles of destruction, it must confront a hard truth: war is often not the absence of options — it is the failure to exhaust them. And perhaps the most powerful fulfilment of prophecy would not be endless war — but the long-awaited decision to beat swords into ploughshares.

In all of these, Africa must not be drawn into the US–Israel–Iran War. As tensions escalate between the United States, Israel, and Iran, Africa faces a critical question: should it take sides in a conflict far beyond its shores? The answer must be clear and firm — Africa should not be dragged into this war.

The continent is already confronting urgent domestic challenges. From youth unemployment and inflation to governance reforms and security threats in parts of the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, African governments have their hands full. Diverting political attention or diplomatic capital to a Middle Eastern conflict risks undermining fragile development gains. Africa’s priority must remain economic transformation, social stability, and inclusive growth.

The economic consequences of the war are already being felt. Instability in the Middle East often disrupts global oil markets, driving up fuel prices. Many African countries are net importers of petroleum products, meaning higher global prices quickly translate into rising transport costs, food inflation, and deeper hardship for households. Even oil-producing nations may face currency volatility and fiscal uncertainty. In a continent where millions remain vulnerable to price shocks, such instability could erode hard-won economic progress.

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Food security is another pressing concern. Shipping routes linked to the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea are vital for trade between Africa and global markets. Escalation in these regions threatens supply chains for essential imports, including food and fertilisers. For countries already battling climate stress and agricultural challenges, further disruptions could intensify hunger and social unrest.

Beyond economics, there are diplomatic and political risks. Africa’s collective voice, often expressed through the African Union, has consistently called for restraint, dialogue, and adherence to international law. Aligning too closely with any side in the conflict could fracture continental unity and weaken Africa’s standing as a neutral advocate for peace. It could also expose individual states to geopolitical pressure or retaliation.

Perhaps most importantly, external wars have a way of inflaming domestic tensions. In diverse societies where political, religious, and ideological identities already intersect, imported geopolitical rivalries could deepen divisions. Africa cannot afford new fault lines at a time when unity and stability are essential for progress. History shows that the continent has often borne the indirect costs of great-power rivalries. It would be a mistake to repeat that pattern. Africa’s strategic interest lies not in entanglement but in principled non-alignment, active diplomacy, and a relentless focus on its own development agenda.

This is not indifference to global peace. On the contrary, Africa should continue to support diplomatic solutions and humanitarian principles. But its future will be secured not by choosing sides in distant wars, but by strengthening resilience, unity, and prosperity at home.

•Osunnuga writes from Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State