Atiku, Kwankwaso: perennial contenders eyeing ADC ticket
By Emmanuel Badejo, Assistant Editor In Nigeria’s ever-evolving political theatre, some names never quite leave the stage. Election after election, they return—rebranded and recalibrated, yet still chasing the same elusive
By Emmanuel Badejo, Assistant Editor
In Nigeria’s ever-evolving political theatre, some names never quite leave the stage. Election after election, they return—rebranded and recalibrated, yet still chasing the same elusive prize. Among the most emblematic of this cycle are former Vice President and 2023 People’s Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso—two figures whose careers reflect persistence without final triumph.
They are not alone, but they are archetypal.
While Atiku has left the PDP and aligned with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Kwankwaso has finalised plans to join the ADC as well.
The politics of return
From the transition era of the Fourth Republic to today’s high-stakes contests, Atiku and Kwankwaso have mastered the art of political survival. They have switched platforms, rebuilt alliances, and re-entered races many had written them off from. Yet despite their resilience, the presidency remains out of reach.
Since 1998, Atiku has been a member of four parties. He started with the PDP, left it twice, and returned at different election cycles. He has also been part of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Progressives Congress (APC), and now the ADC.
Kwankwaso has followed a similar path. He began with the PDP, moved to the APC, returned to the PDP, then joined the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and now the ADC.
Each election cycle tells a familiar story: a renewed campaign, a recalibrated message, and a coalition stitched together—followed by another near miss. In many ways, their journeys reflect a broader trend in Nigerian politics: the normalisation of repeat ambition.
Why the cycle endures
At the heart of this pattern is a system that rewards familiarity as much as it does innovation.
First is structure. Years in politics have given these contenders formidable networks that span party hierarchies, business elites, and regional power blocs. They are not just candidates; they are institutions.
READ ALSO: Fed Govt targets livestock sector to drive jobs, growth, $1tr economy
Then comes visibility. In a political environment where name recognition can be decisive, both men begin each race with an advantage most newcomers can only dream of.
There is also fragmentation. Nigeria’s opposition space is often divided, allowing perennial contenders to remain relevant even when their electoral limits are clear.
And perhaps most important is belief—a deeply held conviction that victory is not a matter of “if,” but “when.”
The cost of familiarity
This cycle, however, comes with consequences.
For one, it narrows the field. The repeated presence of dominant figures can stifle the emergence of new voices, especially younger politicians trying to break through entrenched structures.
It also breeds voter fatigue. For a generation eager for change, the recycling of familiar candidates can feel less like stability and more like stagnation.
More subtly, it shapes political competition itself. Elections risk becoming contests of endurance rather than ideas—where the last man standing, not necessarily the best prepared, takes the prize.
The paradox of power without victory
Atiku and Kwankwaso embody a striking contradiction: they are powerful, yet repeatedly unsuccessful at the highest level.
Atiku remains one of Nigeria’s most formidable political negotiators, with a national network few can rival. Yet his broad appeal has often failed to translate into a decisive electoral victory.
Kwankwaso, on the other hand, commands one of the most loyal grassroots followings in the North. But that base has proven difficult to expand into a truly national coalition.
Together, they highlight the limits of both elite consensus politics and regional populism in a country as complex as Nigeria.
2027 and the question of legacy
As the road to 2027 unfolds, the question is no longer just whether these men will run again, but whether they can reinvent their political relevance.
Will they remain contenders or evolve into kingmakers?
Will they unite opposition forces or further fragment them?
Or will a new generation disrupt the cycle they have come to define?
Breaking the loop
Every political cycle eventually reaches a breaking point. For Nigeria, that moment may come when a new coalition rises above old divides, a younger candidate captures the national imagination, or perennial contenders choose legacy over ambition.
Until then, the cycle continues: familiar names, familiar battles, familiar outcomes.
