Bauchi 2027 governorship race: APC gains as PDP, ADC falter
As Bauchi State prepares for the 2027 general election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) stands out as organised and proactive, with aspirants already building support. In contrast, the People’s Democratic
As Bauchi State prepares for the 2027 general election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) stands out as organised and proactive, with aspirants already building support. In contrast, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is struggling with prolonged internal divisions, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) faces significant leadership uncertainty. The race is shaping into a three-way contest, with party unity, grassroots strength, and clear leadership likely to determine the outcome, reports Correspondent DAVID ADENUGA
Bauchi politics has historically been characterised by intense power struggles, particularly during transitions. Since 1999, leadership changes have been marked by strong competition, shifting alliances, and periods of political tension.
Observers note that Bauchi elections are rarely straightforward: regional balance, personal networks, and grassroots acceptance often outweigh party strength.
Although several parties are likely to field candidates, the competition is sharply defined by three major contenders offering different strengths and challenges: the All Progressives Congress (APC) emphasises structure and coordination; internal rifts beleaguer the People’s Democratic Party (PDP); and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) faces leadership instability.
Each party brings strengths and challenges, making the 2027 contest highly competitive and open.
Governor Bala Mohammed will complete his second term and leave office, concluding an administration that has shaped Bauchi’s political direction since 2019. His departure opens the political space and sets the stage for a highly competitive contest.
APC set to reclaim power
The All Progressives Congress (APC) is positioning itself as a strong contender in Bauchi. The party has expanded its base and improved coordination among leaders and supporters. Observers believe the APC’s success in 2027 will depend on its unity and ability to present a widely supported candidate.
A key APC strength is its expanding grassroots network. Leaders are building ties with voters, traditional institutions, and political groups across local government areas, as part of a strategy to regain control after losing in 2019 and 2023.
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The party controls two of the three Senatorial districts: Bauchi South and Bauchi Central.
The Bauchi South Senatorial District accounts for 63 per cent of the state’s votes.
Bauchi South has dominated the governorship for 23 years by leveraging its population and local government areas. Since 1999, all governors from both PDP and APC have come from this region, including Ahmadu Adamu Muazu (PDP), Isa Yuguda (APC), Mohammed Abubakar (APC), and the current governor, Bala Mohammed (PDP).
Some Bauchi politicians have declared their interest in the 2027 governorship, while others are privately assessing their prospects.
Within the Bauchi APC, contenders include Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, Senator Shehu Buba Umar, former NAPIMS Managing Director Bala Wunti, and former governor Mohammed Abubakar. Tuggar leverages international experience; Buba is known for grassroots connections; Wunti emphasises philanthropy and industry expertise; while Abubakar promises inclusivity and draws on prior governance experience.
Despite their individual strengths, Bauchi’s political history shows that advantages do not guarantee electoral success.
Minister of Health, Professor Muhammad Ali Pate, considered a potential candidate, did not resign by the deadline. Pate appears to be supporting former governor Mohammed Abubakar and Mallam Isa Yuguda.
Analysts suggest that the support Abubakar is receiving may be linked to his eligibility for only one term in office.
In Bauchi North, Ambassador Tuggar is a familiar figure, having contested the 2011 governorship election against his former mentor, Isa Yuguda. Yuguda won with 771,503 votes, while Tuggar, representing CPC, secured 238,462 votes.
Despite his experience, Tuggar faces a common challenge in Bauchi politics: the perception that he is distant from the grassroots. In Bauchi, political success relies on consistent engagement with local communities, and any perceived detachment can be detrimental.
Senator Shehu Buba, representing Bauchi South, is a strong contender due to the region’s record of producing governors since 1999. His robust grassroots network and the enduring Katagum–Bauchi dynamic further enhance his prospects.
Senator Buba is widely seen as the only APC aspirant with the political reach and local acceptance needed to challenge and potentially defeat the incumbent party.
His sustained engagement with party structures, traditional institutions, and grassroots actors has earned him the support of many political stakeholders. In Bauchi, where alliances and local trust often determine election outcomes, this advantage is significant.
Dr Bala Wunti, former NNPC Chief Upstream Investment Officer, has declared for the 2027 Bauchi governorship under the APC. Pundits view him mainly as a philanthropist rather than a traditional politician.
Wunti announced his candidacy during a visit to the Bauchi Local Government chapter of the APC. Pundits describe him as more of a philanthropist than a traditional politician.
Analysts believe the APC has learned from its 2019 and 2023 losses, attributed to internal disagreements. Party leaders now hold reconciliation meetings and have established a conflict-resolution committee to address grievances transparently.
The party is enforcing stricter primary rules, clearer candidate guidelines, and wider consultation with local officials. Town hall meetings across several local governments foster open communication and grassroots input, aiming for party unity ahead of 2027.
In 2019, despite winning the presidential vote in the state, the APC lost the governorship to the PDP due to internal divisions and Bala Mohammed’s strong appeal.
A similar pattern was seen in 2023. The party entered the election amid internal disagreements following a contested primary.
This weakened party mobilisation, as not all stakeholders fully backed the candidate, resulting in another loss despite the contest’s visibility. Still, the party is expected to be formidable in 2027.
For the APC, unified leadership, strong grassroots mobilisation, and careful candidate selection will be decisive. Resolving internal divisions and presenting a widely accepted candidate are essential steps toward reclaiming the state. If the party succeeds in these areas, it stands a strong chance of achieving its goal.
PDP: divided ahead of 2027
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) faces significant internal discord, despite currently controlling the state. These deep challenges threaten its ability to mount a strong campaign for the 2027 elections and maintain its governing position.
This leadership gap coincides with internal divisions at the national level. The crisis involving the faction linked to the Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike, has further weakened the PDP’s structure in Bauchi.
The governor belongs to the Turaki-led PDP faction, not recognised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
In Bauchi, these national issues have had a direct impact. While the party retains loyal members, there are concerns about its ability to organise effectively without a unifying leader.
Uncertainty is heightened by the prospect of Governor Bala Mohammed leaving the PDP, which analysts say could weaken the party by triggering an exodus of loyalists and reducing grassroots support. His recent comments, describing the PDP as “headless” and signalling openness to other options, underscore his frustration with the party’s internal situation.
Mohammed’s defection could significantly alter Bauchi’s political dynamics, shift the balance of power in his favour, strengthen another party, or foster new alliances. In the lead-up to the 2027 race, such a move could reshape alignments, heighten unpredictability, and ensure his influence and network follow him.
He is expected to leave with a strong bloc of loyalists, including the Speaker of the Bauchi State House of Assembly, Suleiman Abubakar; the Commissioner for Finance and Economic Development, Yakubu Adamu; and the Commissioner for Rural Development and Special Duties, Farouk Mustapha.
This group also includes the state PDP Chairman, Samaila Burga, and the Commissioner for Water Resources, Nuhu Zaki, who recently resigned to contest the Bauchi Central senatorial seat.
The party’s crisis has created opportunities for other parties, including the ADC and APC, to approach the governor.
Reports indicate ongoing discussions to persuade him to join a new platform ahead of the 2027 elections.
However, talks of the governor defecting from the PDP to the APC collapsed after the APC reportedly rejected a proposed 60/40 power-sharing arrangement.
Factional PDP chairman Sama’ila Adamu Burga stated that negotiations have ended, and the group will now consider joining another party ahead of 2027.
Burga added that the faction remains committed to inclusive governance, and the African Democratic Congress may be the next alternative for Bala Mohammed and his loyalists.
Currently, discussions about Bala Mohammed’s successor are on hold as the governor and his loyalists continue to seek the right party.
The PDP faction loyal to the governor has begun new consultations to determine its next political direction.
In the Wike-led PDP, which is the recognised party in the state, Senator Abdul Ningi of Bauchi Central and Usman Adamu Sufi, a respected figure in Bauchi politics, are quietly considering governorship bids but have not made their intentions public.
Despite internal divisions, the Wike-led PDP remains confident it will stay strong even if the governor leaves.
“Bala Mohammed knows that if he leaves PDP, the party will still remain. The flag may go down for a short time, but I can assure you it will rise again before 2027,” said the Publicity Secretary of the Wike faction, Godfrey Mannasseh Marti, in an interview with our Correspondent.
The chieftain, however, warned that leaving the PDP may not offer the governor an easier political path.
“Anywhere he moves, he is going to face challenges. I don’t know whether from there he will retire from active politics,” he added.
He expressed optimism that the governor would make the right decision, noting that many supporters in Bauchi are hopeful he will remain in the party. “We believe the people of Bauchi State will be glad if His Excellency makes the right decision,” he said.
However, analysts caution that confidence alone is insufficient. Without clear leadership, strong organisation, and unity, the PDP may struggle to retain power.
The coming months will be critical for the party. It must address the potential departure of its key leader, rebuild its internal structure, and present a candidate who can earn voters’ trust.
Uncertainty within ADC
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) recently emerged as a potential third force in Bauchi politics, bolstered by former President Atiku Abubakar’s significant influence in the North.
However, recent developments have slowed this momentum. The Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) decision to withdraw recognition from the party’s leadership has created uncertainty about its future.
INEC has stated it will not recognise any ADC faction until the internal leadership dispute is resolved. This has left the party without a clear direction, making it difficult to organise, conduct primaries, or prepare for elections. Analysts note that resolving the ADC’s internal crisis before 2027 will be challenging due to deep divisions at both the state and national levels. While reconciliation efforts have occurred, ongoing leadership disputes and a lack of consensus suggest a quick resolution is unlikely. Unless factions reach an agreement soon, the ADC’s chances of fully participating in the 2027 elections remain uncertain.
For politicians considering the ADC, this situation raises serious concerns. Many are hesitant to join a party that may struggle to present candidates or participate fully in the electoral process.
This has also affected the party’s efforts to attract Governor Bala Mohammed. While the ADC positioned itself as a strong option for him, the current crisis has made this move less certain.
Beyond the national crisis, the ADC in Bauchi is also internally divided.
Currently, two factions claim party leadership in Bauchi State: one loyal to Senator Haliru Jika, former representative of Bauchi Central, and the other to Nasif Suleiman Gamawa.
