Brent hovers around $70 per barrel
Brent crude traded yesterday near a six-month high around $68-$70 a barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, despite forecasts of a 2026 supply surplus. Reports also
Brent crude traded yesterday near a six-month high around $68-$70 a barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, despite forecasts of a 2026 supply surplus. Reports also suggest that the price may go as high as $71.89 in January. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) currently trades at around $62-$63 per barrel.
The market trends are supported by supply risks in the Middle East, while long-term forecasts suggest a potential supply glut in 2026.
Reuters reported that OPEC+ is considering easing production cuts from April, which may pressure prices.
Despite fears of a large supply surplus in 2026, prices have remained supported by tight market conditions and geopolitical risks. However, if OPEC+ proceeds with increasing production in April, this could increase supply, as discussed by Reuters.
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OPEC+ is said to be leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April, three OPEC+ sources said, as the group prepares for peak summer demand and price strength is bolstered by tensions over U.S.-Iran relations.
The resumption would allow OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and fellow members, such as the UAE, to regain market share at a time other OPEC+ members, such as Russia and Iran, contend with Western sanctions and Kazakh output is restrained by a series of setbacks.
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The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equating to about three per cent of global demand, and froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.
The Brent crude benchmark is trading near $68 a barrel despite speculation that a supply glut would suppress prices this year. That’s not far from a six-month high of $71.89 hit in January on tensions between the United States and Iran.
According to Reuters, all three OPEC+ sources, who declined to be identified by name, said the eight members at the March 1 meeting were leaning towards a resumption in production quota increases from April.
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Three other sources familiar with OPEC+ thinking said they expected increases to resume in April.
No decision has yet been made and talks will continue in the weeks ahead of the March 1 meeting, two of the OPEC+ sources said.
OPEC and authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia did not reply immediately to requests for comment.
OPEC’s latest oil market forecasts show demand for OPEC+ crude in the second quarter falling by 400,000 bpd from the first three months of the year, but demand for the whole year is projected to be 600,000 bpd higher than in 2025.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, asked whether OPEC+ production increases would resume, told reporters last week that delegates expected demand to rise in the spring.
“Starting from around March and April, demand is gradually increasing. This will be an additional factor to ensure the balance,” he said.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 850,000 bpd, though this is still higher than last year’s growth of 770,000 bpd.
OPEC+, which comprises the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, pumps about half of the world’s oil.
