Lessons from the Chessboard: Nigeria’s Strategic Response to the Geopolitical Crisis in the Middle East
By Mufutau Muyiwa In the German winter of 2023, I delivered a semester-long course to a multicultural composition of master’s degree students. The course was titled: The Dialogue of Cultures,
By Mufutau Muyiwa
In the German winter of 2023, I delivered a semester-long course to a multicultural composition of master’s degree students. The course was titled: The Dialogue of Cultures, Negotiated (Mis)Understanding and Strategic (Mis)Communication in the Information Age. In what constitutes a departure from state-centric security and power dynamics, we traced how globalization and technological advancements have dissolved the barriers to accessing and engaging foreign audiences. We dissected the image cultivation programs and foreign policy aspirations of core and emerging states from the theoretical lens of Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye’s ‘‘complex interdependence’’. The twin concepts of ‘‘soft power’’ and ‘‘hard power’’ resonated with my students, such that both terms became the subject of humour, banter, and playful unromantic expressions in class.
Soft power embodies a country’s capacity to influence the preferences of other countries by leveraging its cultural distinctiveness, rich history, political values, and prestige. Hard power has often been the luxury of global and regional superpowers with the wherewithal to flex military muscle, inflict economic damage, impose international political isolation, and deploy coercive mechanisms to enforce compliance. On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel demonstrated their hard power attributes by launching a wave of military attacks against military installations, missile infrastructure, and production sites in Iran. However, Iran has successfully launched retaliatory attacks on US bases and Israel, attacked the US diplomatic facilities, and blocked the Strait of Hormuz. This exposes the world’s soft underbelly and stretches the notion of ‘‘hard power’’ beyond the conceptual definition and political-cum-military realities of the term.
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One remarkable outcome of the intellectual exchanges with students is the realization that global politics is a high-stakes chess game driven by strategic alliances and political calculations. Nigeria’s foreign policy has experienced a remarkable resurgence under the former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hon. Yusuf Maitama Tuggar. He launched a charm offensive to reassert Nigeria’s role on the global stage through diplomatic dexterity, constructive engagement, and a strong bilateral and multilateral network. However, the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East represents a high-stakes chessboard in a global marketplace of interests. States, like chess players, pursue national interests with choreographed and calculated moves that do not exist in isolation. Every foreign policy declaration, strategic economic alliances, political alignment, or policy misalignment imitates the cautious advance and reluctant tactical sacrifices of a pawn that is both expendable and serves as a protective shield for the king. The pawns are often regarded as expendable on the chessboard, and this is symbolic of the ordinary citizens who suffer the repercussions of the strategic actions and inactions of the political elites.
The opening moves in chess create a false sense of distance, a posture many countries adopt in their reactions to distant conflicts. The Middle East is central to global energy flows, and the conflict has disrupted oil supply chains, elevated shipping risks, activated price shocks, and heightened economic uncertainties in the global markets. The reverberating impact of conflict elsewhere is often felt everywhere in today’s interconnected world and volatile international system. A national policy that conceives the Middle East conflict as ‘‘distant’’ is grossly misleading and detached from geopolitical realities. The exponential rise in the costs of fuel, fertilizers, and food commodities in Nigeria is a testament to the fact that the tremors of the Middle East conflict have far-reaching repercussions. In a country where farmers are constrained by the activities of bandits, herdsmen, the Boko Haram terrorist group, and limited access to credit facilities, this results in reduced agricultural output, higher food prices, and deepening food insecurity.For many Nigerians already facing the harsh realities of fuel subsidy removal, the human impact of the Middle East crisis and the corresponding surge in global oil prices have triggered an increase in the cost of domestic fuel consumption, hikes in transportation fares, and affected businesses of all scales.
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The 650,000-barrel-per-day (BPD) capacity Dangote Refinery in Lagos, Nigeria, has been the catalyst to consolidate the country’s domestic refining capability, but the Middle East conflict may have sabotaged the nation’s aspirations to curb dependence on fuel imports and satisfy national appetite for 60 to 75 million litres of petrol daily. Nigeria has no official strategic fuel reserve, while pipeline vandalism and production inefficiencies expose the country to global price surges. The spillover effect of higher global oil prices directly translates into stagflation, as increasing costs for businesses may impair productivity, negatively impact revenue, and trigger job losses. This also has implications for national security, as economic hardship is a natural stimulant for religious radicalization, political instability, elevated levels of social unrest, and organized crime. A chess player’s reckless neglect of the pawn structure often leads to long-term weakness. Therefore, swift policy interventions are required to mitigate the impact of the geopolitical crisis and safeguard the welfare of citizens as a matter of moral and strategic imperatives.
The EU has pivoted away from Russian energy, following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. The geopolitical tensions occasioned by the Middle East crisis and the corresponding restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz exacerbate supply constraints for the EU. These factors have accelerated Europe’s search for alternative energy sources. For Nigeria, this presents an opportunity for strategic alignment anchored on the mutuality of interests with the EU and without surrendering autonomy for national interest. Nigeria’s oil economy is a queen: a powerful chess piece that is both a liability and a strength. The economic reliance on oil proceeds, structural inefficiencies, and gross mismanagement of public funds have exposed the domestic economy to external shocks. By positioning itself as a reliable energy partner, Nigeria can leverage the Middle East crisis as a strategic instrument to increase export revenues, steer economic transformation, and deliver sustainable development. However, this requires strategic clarity, significant investment, infrastructure development, and diversification.
Keohane and Nye’s ‘‘complex interdependence’’ is synonymous with the chess game, where pieces are interlocked, and moves are calculated with cascading precision. Nations are already making permutations for different scenarios, consulting allies, anticipating the moves of rival states, incurring short-term losses, and making concessions for strategic benefits.Like in chess, Nigeria needs to deploy the ‘‘Sicilian Defense’’, an aggressive, strategically ambitious, and calculated response. This means the country must refrain from falsely exaggerating its advantage as the largest oil producer in Africa, or underestimating its vulnerabilities. Rather than riding the oil price wave, Nigeria must play a long-game strategy anchored on transforming the geopolitical crisis into a structural advantage and economic outcomes. This can be realized by creating a vibrant economy, optimizing refining capacity, strengthening oil trade relations, exploring new markets, and addressing oil theft and production volatility in the Niger Delta. In a world of complex interdependence, the chessboard analogy offers urgent and instructive lessons that can help Nigeria manoeuvre the treacherous geopolitical currents and interconnected dynamics that shape economic realities. At this crossroads, strategic clarity and Tuggar-like diplomatic gymnastics are required to protect ordinary citizens, navigate a “geopolitical chessboard” and avoid a ‘‘checkmate’’.
