NiMet unveils 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction

The cessation of the 2026 rainy season is predicted to occur around October 6 over the northernmost parts of Sokoto, Katsina, Jigawa, and Yobe states. This is expected to be followed by cessation over most northern states between October 14 and 20.

In the central and inland states in the South, cessation is expected to occur from November 7 through December 1.

READ ALSO: Iyabo Ojo is not an ambassador, nor awarded any gig — FAAN MD clarifies

For the coastal states, such as Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and parts of Ondo, Edo, and Abia states, the cessation of the rainy season is from October 9 through December 17.

Highlighting the 2026 SCP, Keyamo warned that the rains across the southern parts of the country should not be mistaken for the onset of rainfall.

He said: “Those engaged in rain-fed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities in Nigeria are advised to refer to the predicted onset dates in the SCP or consult NiMet for proper guidance.”

The highlights of the forecast read: “Early onset is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba states. A late onset is expected over Borno State.

“Rainfall cessation is anticipated to be earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger states. However, a delayed end of season is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna states.

“A longer-than-normal length of rainy season is expected in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba states; whereas parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger states are expected to have a shorter-than-normal length of rainy season.

“A normal annual rainfall amount is anticipated in most parts of Nigeria compared to the long-term average. Above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom states, and the Federal Capital Territory; while in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun states, below-normal rainfall is expected.

“During the season of March to May, severe dry spells exceeding 15 days are likely in parts of Oyo and Ogun states, while moderate dry spells are expected over Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, and Delta states, as well as parts of Kogi, and Kwara states.”

Keyamo also stated that the prediction showed that some parts of the country would experience 21 days of dry spell.

“Furthermore, during the June-July-August season, a severe dry spell that may last up to 21 days is predicted for parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara states.

“The Little Dry Season (LDS), also known as ‘August Break,’ is predicted to begin by late July and would be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States.

“The number of days with little or no rainfall will range between 28 and 40 days. A moderate LDS effect is expected over Ondo, parts of Kwara and Edo states.”

NiMet’s Director-General, Prof. Charles Anosike, announced that the agency had established partnerships with governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to downscale the prediction.

He called for increased partnerships with state governments to downscale the prediction to more states.

Anosike said: “We are working assiduously to fast-track the deployment of digital advisory services in partnership with local and international collaborators. There is still much ground to be covered.

“I call for increased partnerships with the agency, particularly from state governments. We want to be able to downscale the 2026 SCP information to more states than we did in previous years.”

The NiMet boss pledged the agency’s commitment to providing timely, accurate and reliable weather and climate information to build a climate-resilient economy.