Ondo South Senate race: Can APC afford to sideline Yoruba core voters?

Determining the exact population split between the Yoruba and Ijaw in the Ondo South Senatorial District is complex because Nigerian census data typically records population by Local Government Area (LGA) rather than by specific ethnicity. However, we can arrive at a strong, data-driven estimate by looking at the demographic makeup of the six LGAs that comprise the district. The district is overwhelmingly Yoruba, with the Ijaw population primarily concentrated in a single Local Government Area. Out of the six council areas in the district, five are exclusively Yoruba, comprising the Ikale, Ilaje, and Ondo subgroups, while the sixth, Ese-Odo, is shared between the Ijaw and the Apoi, a Yoruba subgroup that has historically assimilated some Ijaw cultural traits but remains Yoruba in identity. Collectively, the Yoruba represent roughly 85 to 90 percent of the district's total population.

Not only are the Ijaws a minority within Ese-Odo, but they also constitute a distinct minority in the context of the entire Senatorial District—likely sitting between 8 percent and 12 percent of the total population of Ondo South. In a head-to-head population estimate, the figure of the Yoruba is put at approximately 1.5 to 1.6 million, while the Ijaw population is estimated at 150,000 to 200,000. This demographic reality is precisely why the district's political representation and traditional leadership have been predominantly Yoruba. Though Ese-Odo remains a critical swing zone for ethnic-inclusive politics in the state, the broader district is defined by its Yoruba heritage.

Therefore, the emergence of a non-Yorubaman as the Senator representing Ondo South would have several strategic political and social implications for the district that cannot be ignored. The least of all these concerns is the potential distortion of the existing informal power-sharing arrangement. Traditionally, political power in Ondo South revolves around an informal rotation between the Ikale (Okitipupa/Irele), the Ilaje (Ilaje), and the Ile-Oluji/Okeigbo axis. An Ijaw victory would likely embolden other non-Yoruba-speaking groups within the state to demand similar high-level representation, potentially complicating future gentleman's agreements regarding power sharing and causing systemic friction within the party's internal zoning logic.

Secondly, such a move could serve as a recipe for potential inter-ethnic friction. It is worth noting that the relationship between the Ijaw and their neighbours, particularly the Ilaje, has historically seen periods of extreme tension, most notably the violent communal clashes of 1998–1999. If Kekemeke emerges as a Senator representing a Yoruba-majority district, a significant portion of the populace might feel underrepresented or even marginalised if their interests are championed by someone from a different ethnic stock. This is a sensitive psychological reality in Nigerian grassroots politics that the APC leadership cannot afford to overlook.

Since the Ese-Odo LGA is shared between the Ijaw (Arogbo) and the Apoi (Yoruba), an Ijaw senator would need to work doubly hard to maintain a balance of power within their own home base just to avoid internal communal friction. The history of conflict between the Ijaw and Ilaje communities, particularly in the riverine areas of Ondo State, is a complex narrative rooted in competition over land, resources, and administrative recognition. Upsetting the existing balance of peace by shifting the senatorial mandate to a minority group would mark a significant and potentially dangerous escalation in regional hostilities.

The Ilaje and the Ijaw both have deep historical ties to the coastal wetlands of the state. Disputes frequently arise over who settled in specific fishing outposts first. Because both groups are traditionally migratory fishing communities, "ownership" of the water and the surrounding land is often contested through oral histories that frequently contradict one another. The 1998–1999 crisis remains the most cited period of hostility, a dark chapter that resulted in thousands of people being displaced and many villages being burnt to the ground. The underlying resentment took years to cool, and the current peace is a product of careful ethnic balancing.

The APC must tread softly to sustain this delicate balance between these two ethnic groups. Having an Ijaw Senator representing the entirety of Ondo South would be seen as a disruption of the status quo, making it difficult to manage the majority-minority optics with the necessary high-level political tact. Lagos State serves as a perfect case study in the management of diversity. The political landscape in Lagos presents a complex intersection of demographics and entrenched political structures. While Lagos is often described as Nigeria's melting pot, the electoral reality for high-ranking offices like the Senate has remained remarkably consistent in its ethnic representation to ensure local stability. In a demographic context, Lagos is home to a massive population of non-indigenes, with the Igbo ethnic group representing a significant demographic and economic bloc. Estimates often suggest that non-Yoruba residents make up nearly 40 percent to 45 percent of the state's total population, concentrated heavily in areas like Amuwo-Odofin, Ojo, Oshodi-Isolo, and Alimosho. Despite this massive diversity, the three Senatorial seats (Lagos West, Lagos Central, and Lagos East) have been held exclusively by Yoruba candidates since the return to democracy in 1999. This is done to ensure that the indigenous majority maintains a sense of political security and ownership.

APC leadership in Ondo State should learn from this Lagosian model. Given the region's economic significance as the primary hub for the state's oil and gas production—contributing roughly 60,000 barrels per day—it is the engine of Ondo State's fiscal health. Only a Yoruba candidate from the oil-producing areas can offer the representation necessary to sustain its status as the state's economic lifeblood. For this by-election, the APC stakeholders face a critical choice. The district requires a representative who can navigate the complexities of resource control, environmental remediation, and the specific needs of coastal communities without being bogged down by ethnic suspicion.

With Ondo being the 5th largest oil producer in Nigeria, the district needs a voice capable of pushing for a fair share of the 13 percent Derivation Fund and ensuring the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) is fully leveraged for the benefit of all. Additionally, the presence of the Ore Industrial Hub and the massive potential of the Ondo Deep Sea Port project require a representative who can attract federal backing for large-scale infrastructure. Historically, there is internal pressure within the APC to balance the interests of the various local governments: Ilaje, Ese-Odo, Okitipupa, Irele, Odigbo, and Ile-Oluji/Okeigbo. Selecting a candidate who can bridge these sub-zones is essential for party unity and electoral success.

Kekemeke, hailing from the Ijaw (Arogbo) minority in Ese-Odo, faces the immense challenge of convincing the broader electorate that a minority candidate can carry the full weight of the entire district's interests. There is a persistent political school of thought suggesting that minority-led representation may prioritize localized grievances over broad-based advocacy. They have listened to proponents of Kekemeke's candidacy who cite his extensive resume—former SSG, former Attorney General, and pioneer APC State Chairman. While these credentials certainly mark him as a statesman, they do not necessarily guarantee a policy of inclusivity for the majority or electoral viability in a general contest.

With Jimoh Ibrahim, an Ikale man from Okitipupa, vacating the seat, it is significant to prioritise candidates from the Ikale, Ilaje or Ile-Oluji/Okeigbo axes who have a natural mandate to protect the 60,000 barrels-per-day output. Like Ikale,

Ile-Oluji/Okeigbo council area is a significant administrative and economic hub in the Ondo South Senatorial District. It is one of Nigeria's largest producers of Cocoa. Other major crops include oil palm, cassava, yams, and rubber.  Its demography reflects a blend of deep-rooted Yoruba heritage. Electing a candidate from this Local Government would be of immense economic benefit to the entire Senatorial District.

To navigate these dynamics, the APC leadership must ensure the majority groups feel ownership of the seat to prevent voter apathy. If the Yoruba majority feels sidelined in their own backyard, it could create friction that affects the party's performance in the general polls.

Beyond demographics, Article 31 of the APC constitution states that an aspirant must resign from a political appointment at least 30 days before the primary. Currently, Kekemeke is the Chairman of NIPOST.

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As of the March 31 deadline for intending aspirants to resign, he had yet to vacate his appointment. This is a clear breach of the procedural arrangement, which must not be overlooked by the party's screening committee. Above all, the leadership of the party must listen to the counsel of concerned elders who suggest that the vacant seat should remain within the majority section of the state. We cannot ignore the wisdom of the elders. As the Yoruba adage says: "Ti a ba nge igi nigbo, agba ni mo ibi to yio wo si" (When a young person falls a tree in the forest, it is the elder who knows where it will fall). This proverb speaks to the necessity of foresight and the understanding of consequences.

While a novice or an ambitious aspirant may have the energy to cut the tree, they often lack the situational awareness and historical perspective to predict where it will land and who it might crush. There is no gainsaying that Kekemeke has paid his dues in the politics of Ondo State. However, it would be strategically unwise to ignore the electorate's sensitivity to these historical, cultural, and demographic realities. For the APC to secure a victory that is both total and peaceful, it must align its candidate choice with the demographic weight and the historical expectations of the Ondo South people.

Adebayo wrote from Akure, Ondo State capital.