The 2026 Budget

President Bola Tinubu had earlier requested an upward adjustment of the initial 2026 Appropriation Bill from N58.4 trillion to N67.4 trillion—a N9 trillion augmentation. The augmentation, he said, is designed, among others, to resolve outstanding commitments, consolidate debt, and fund strategic priorities while easing borrowing pressure on the domestic financial market.

In the same spirit, the National Assembly also approved the president’s request for a $6.9 billion foreign loan facility, in what marks a significant step in the administration’s drive to bridge Nigeria’s infrastructure gap and stabilise the national economy. A standout provision in the approval, which the National Assembly calls mandatory, is the dedication of 40% of the loan exclusively to capital projects within the 2025 and 2026 fiscal cycles.

In the reckoning of the National Assembly this will ensure that the borrowing translates directly into tangible development and long-term national assets.

As far as budget profiles go, we have no reason to doubt that it matches the administration’s hunger to fast-track the delivery of critical projects and to guarantee the security of lives and property of the citizens. The same with the metrics: they are as pragmatic as can be, particularly in the current circumstances.

Oil price is projected at $64.85 per barrel; oil production is set at 1.84 million barrels per day and the exchange rate projected at N1,400 to $1 USD. It also projects a deficit of N23.85 trillion (4.28% of GDP), as against total revenue of N34.33 trillion. None of these could be said to be extraordinary.

Same with its stated budget priorities; they are the same old issues of defence and security– N5.41 trillion with modernisation, counter-terrorism, and community policing as strategic focus; infrastructure – N3.56 trillion with the completion of Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and port upgrades as strategic focus; education – N3.52 trillion with strategic focus on full funding for NELFUND and vocational skills training; and health – N2.48 trillion with primary healthcare networks and maternal health expansion as strategic focus. Overall, these are areas that have direct impacts not only on national productivity but household welfare.

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Howbeit, the main issue, as we have seen of previous cycles, has always been one of revenue shortfalls, as a result of which effective implementation is hampered. It was the case with the 2023 Budget; we saw it happen with the 2024 and in 2025 budget cycles, all of which had to be rolled over into one at a point. Surely, the lessons from those years’ underperformance can only but lend to a sense of cautious optimism under which nothing should be taken for granted in the bid to close the revenue gap.

We expect the government to work particularly hard in this regard.

No less deserving of attention is the phenomenon of the multiple budget cycle. We recall in particular that the president had, while delivering his budget speech last December promised to terminate it by March 31 and that effective 2026, Nigeria will operate on a standardised calendar with no excuses for budget overlaps. Now that the terminal date for Budget 2025 has been shifted by another three months till June, our expectation is that the Federal Government will not only abide by the new date this time around, but make such overlaps a thing of the past.

Overall, what the current situation demands is not only scrupulous fidelity to the goals of the budget but a recognition of the fierce urgency required in implementation.